In sport, it is rare that the thought of a contest being completely one-sided could be utterly enthralling. Yet, that is the case with Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov.
The saying goes ‘variety is the spice of life’. However, sometimes the simplest equations can have the most exciting outcomes. When a striker meets a wrestler, somebody is either getting knocked out or somebody is getting pounded out.
Both ‘The Irish Gorilla’ (a new self-given nickname by Conor) and the Russian bear-wrestler (not a nickname, a fact) have been dominant at the highest level of MMA due to their overwhelming skill in one specific area, which overcompensates for their clear comparative weakness in another. And the best part is, these skills and weaknesses lay in completely opposite areas between the fighters.
To add an extra layer of excitement, the two have personalities as starkly contrasting as their styles. Conor McGregor is a rude, brash, gangster-like, money hungry, trash talking king, knockout artist that has quickly picked up two UFC titles in a manner like no one else in MMA history. Khabib Nurmagomedov is the polite, simple, religious wrestling phenomenon that has slowly picked up win-after-win to become the UFC champion in an underwhelming fashion (which was not his fault due to a series of injuries meaning he fought a low-ranked opponent for the title).
At 26-0 and arguably never having lost a round, Khabib presents the immovable object to Conor’s unstoppable force. As the two steamrolled through the UFC, the fight has been talked about by the hard-core MMA fans for years and by casual MMA fans ever since they both fought on the same card on UFC 205. However, ever since Conor McGregor decided to attack Khabib in the infamous bus-dolly throwing incident, the fight has been the talk of the world. And now it is upon us.
The two only know one respective way to fight and as such, they will each be playing their own game in the octagon today.
Khabib Nurmagomedov’s game: Russian roulette
Fittingly, the best way to describe what the undefeated Dagestani will be doing in the octagon tonight is Russian roulette, described by google as ‘the practice of loading a bullet into one chamber of a revolver, spinning the cylinder, and then pulling the trigger while pointing the gun at one’s own head.’
Pulling the trigger – which for the for Khabib means going for a takedown – will mean potentially taking a bullet. There is no doubt that if he even has a slight hold of McGregor (for example, if he dives for an ankle or takes hold of a wrist), it is expected he will gain complete control of ‘Notorious’ (Conor’s original nickname), such is the level of his grappling. Khabib comes from a part of Russia which has disproportionately produced a plethora of great wrestlers, decorated at Olympic level. He has shown this ability by physically mauling opponents in the UFC, taking them down and bombarding them with powerful elbows and punches. This has been so successful he has arguably never lost a round. Only one fighter – Al Iaquinta – has ever really defended his takedown attempts consistently, but Iaquinta is also known as a quality wrester but was still taken down several times regardless.
Nevertheless, all fights start standing, and Khabib has shown he can take time to gauge his range. In this period, he can be vulnerable to taking punches, most notable in his fight against Michael Johnson. Khabib does appear to be tremendously physically tough, with a good ability to take a punch and power through to get into a wrestling/clinching position. But no man is invulnerable.
So Khabib is playing Russian roulette and he has to pull the trigger and largely hope he doesn’t catch a bullet, or it will be an early night for him.
Conor McGregor’s game: Hide and seek
To put it politely, McGregor would likely baulk at the suggestion he would ever hide. He won’t. He doesn’t. He is a come-forward counter-striker, the pushes forward, prods and probes, setting up traps to find the target for his laser left-hand.
But, in this fight, he has to hide in the sense he needs to be very, very particular about where he leaves his feet for fear of being taken down. And as he hides his feet, he has to still seek out Khabib’s chin. As someone that usually uses kicks to find his range and move his opponent about, Conor will have to think of another way to do this as wrestlers often target kicks to catch for the take down. So, Conor will have to ‘hide’ instead of using his kicks to find range, and he will still have to seek out the right range to land his knockout power.
Conor has fantastic footwork, which even showed in his boxing match against Floyd Mayweather by the fact he was quick enough to turn and pivot his way behind Floyd on multiple occasions (where he would land a few illegal blows on the back of the head).
The problem for Conor is regardless of his footwork, is that Khabib will be dropping down to knee level for a take down as soon as Conor is near. This means Conor simply needs to be more elusive than he usually is, because if he gets taken down, he is not going to find Khabib locked onto him until the fight ends, which could be sooner than the bell sounds given the difference between the two when it comes to the ground-game.
Prediction: Conor takes to fights like a duck to water. As soon as it starts, where others look nervous and take a while to find a rhythm, he is right on his game and usually landing shots. If Khabib can survive the first 1-3 minutes, he will slowly be able to work his way into a position to get a take down. As the fight goes on, stamina will be an issue and Khabib will end up stopping Conor in brutal fashion. And in my opinion, that is what will happen. Round 2 Khabib submission win.
Jazz Theory 