World Cup 2022: A Seasonal Guide (with predictions!)

For football fans, this year Christmas has come late, and it’s come during Christmas.

Just as we start seeing the trees go up and you have to start thinking about gifts, the friggin World Cup begins. What a gift!

What has always been a summer carnival is now a winter festival. It is only right this happens to ensure the World Cup is truly a global tournament, and finally an Arab nation can host the greatest sporting event on earth.

For the next four weeks, over one billion people will watch 32 nations compete. With great goals, tense games and most of the best players in the world, there is so much that makes a World Cup the most watched event on earth. Every single game is an event in itself and a chance to make history.

Every World Cup starts with a host of questions that always pull-out surprising answers. How will the established hierarchy do? What dark horses will emerge? Can the top players produce on the biggest stage? Who will make themselves an overnight star? These questions will only be answered once the tournament is underway but here is a seasonal guide of what you can expect from each team in World Cup 2022 Qatar.

Group A

Perceived to be one of the weaker groups in the tournament, the combination of European giant vs Middle Eastern debutant vs Africa’s new champions vs South American World Cup veterans will present us the type of culture clash games which makes this tournament everything it is.

Qatar

A bit like being served sprouts at this time of year, a lot of people think they stink and shouldn’t even be included, but the host nation has been given the opportunity to leave their mark on world football history and they will be doing everything they can to do so.

Expect a super-fit side being driven on by home pride and favourable refereeing. They will play with no fear but not much real quality either.

Christmas star: 31-year-old captain Hassan Al-Haydos is their main man and will play as such, either from the wing or as an attacking central midfielder. Expect him to make history as Qatar’s first ever goalscorer in a World Cup tournament.

Stocking surprise: The team may play better football than expected, due to the Spanish influence on their game. Tiki Taka pass master and Barcelona legend Xavi has managed 13 players in this squad during his time managing their club Al-Sadd, and ex-Barcelona youth coach (who Xavi played under) Felix Sanchez has been in charge of Qatar since 2017 implementing a passing style on the team, which helped them win the Asia Cup for the first time in 2019. They may be slicker than your average side!

Prediction: The team have no players that have any real experience anywhere beyond the Arab nation leagues. At this level, they will do well to scramble a draw before going out at the group stage. Anything else will be suspicious.

Ecuador

Having first qualified for a World Cup in 2002, the South American minnows have only missed out on qualifying for one tournament since then. A bit like getting socks for Christmas, they are not that exciting and have a pragmatic approach to their football. Although they have had bigger stars in previous tournaments, they have as much chance as ever of repeating their best achievement (group qualification) due to the group they are in.

Star decoration: Enner Valencia is the captain and star name in the squad. The veteran forward is a proven goalscorer and comes into the tournament on great form with 13 goals in 12 games for Fenerbache this season.

Stocking surprise: Ecuador have the spine of a top young side emerging, led by Brighton’s trio of defender Pervis Estupinan, and midfielders Jeremy Sarmiento and the standout Moises Caicedo. Along with Gonzalo Plata, a winger at Vallodid in Spain, Ecuador could catch the eye for young talent as they battle for qualification.

Prediction: Ecuador will spring a surprise and push Senegal aside to qualify from the group. But that is as far as they can go.

Senegal

The West Africans would have been absolutely relishing this tournament, coming in as reigning champions of their continent, if not for the unfortunate absence of star player Sadio Mane. Whilst that significantly drops expectations, the team still have a great blend of experience mixed with potential. Like going to your work Christmas party, you do not know quite what to expect in this tournament from Senegal. They could provide us with lots of thrills or they may be a damp squib.

Star decoration: Without Bayern Munich’s Mane, Captain Kalidou Koulibaly is the only other player in the squad that some may call world class, although his early time at new club Chelsea has not proven it so far.

Stocking surprise: Ismaila Sarr and Illiman Ndiaye have been lighting up the Championship (England’s second tier division) for Watford and Sheffield United respectively with goals, flair and skill. Both could both start together as wingers for Senegal and will be keen to make their mark.

Prediction: Despite having a good amount of top league experience in the squad, key players like Koulibaly, Cheick Kouyate and Idrissa Gueye seem to have seen better days. They will be no pushovers, but will be in a battle to qualify from the group, a battle I see them losing to Ecuador.

Holland

Probably the only team now that have giant status in world football that have not won the World Cup, Holland come into this tournament looking to give 71-year-old legendary coach Louis Van Gaal – diagnosed with cancer – a fairytale finish to his career. Although not the most exciting Dutch squad compared to past years, the team have a lot of quality, good form and lots of ambition.

Star decoration: Virgil Van Dijk has been perceived as the best defender in the world for most of the last five years, and in this Holland team he will be given the opportunity to prove it. Just behind him, Frankie De Jong has the potential to get similar recognition as a central midfielder.

Stocking surprise: The selection of uncapped Xavi Simons in the squad has excited many, especially as he has played much of the season spectacularly as a striker for PSV Eindhoven, which is a position where the Holland squad lack the depth of other positions. His clubmate winger Cody Gakpo may also become the world’s most wanted player if he takes his club form into the World Cup.

Prediction: This Holland squad have incredible strength in depth in defence, and a good amount of solid reliable midfielders with a touch of class. If the forward line can come to form, they could win the whole thing, which I believe they will do.

Group B

A group with teams that are all directly connected through real world history and politics, games between such nations usually play out with an extra edge. Expect nothing less in this group, making it as tense as family Christmas dinner with relatives you know dislike each other.

England

When it comes to tournaments, England are arguably the most in-form team in the World Cup, having reached the semi-final and then final of the last two they played in. Yet, the expectation around them does not reflect this, both from within England and overseas. This may be because as increasingly good as the team’s forward line looks, their defensive capabilities cannot seem to keep up.

Star decoration: The argument that Harry Kane is the best attacking player in the world today should not be dismissed. His vision, his finishing, his power and his intelligence make him an undeniable force, standing head-and-shoulders above all others in the squad.

Stocking surprise: On paper, Gareth Southgate has been a fantastic manager for England, arguably their second best-ever. A closer analysis of his in-game management may reveal the same and I see that becoming evident in this World Cup, especially with a 26-man squad and five substitutions available.

Prediction: This England squad have a lot of tournament experience as a collective and just as much individual quality. As such, they should get to the quarter-finals at least.

Iran

Making their fifth appearance at a World Cup tournament, this may be Iran’s best chance ever of going beyond the first stage, with many feeling they are on equal footing with two (USA and Wales) of the other teams in their group. Regardless, Iran fans should keep their expectations low, like a father unwrapping gifts from his family.

Star decoration: In Mehdi Taremi, Iran have a player that is in the prime of his career, having scored over 60 goals for FC Porto since 2020. He is good enough to regularly star at a Champions League level and will be primed to be the nation’s talisman for this World Cup.

Stocking surprise: Sardar Azmoun is a forward with a serious goal threat, although that is not evident from his time with Bayer Leverkusen over his last two injury plagued seasons. Before that though, he scored 62 goals in four seasons for Zenit Petersburg. Although not a starter for Iran, with five-subs when the 6ft 1in striker comes off the bench, he will be a handful for any defence.

Prediction: Iran’s vastly experienced coach Carlos Queiroz compliments a squad which has only one player under-25 in the entire squad. This veteran mentality will make them difficult to get a result against. However, the man they rely on (Taremi) will need to outperform the likes of Gareth Bale to send Iran through to the second round, which I do not see happening.

USA

With one of the youngest squads in the tournament, expectations are not the highest for this US team but hope is, as the team has a lot of potential they will get the opportunity to fulfil in this World Cup. Expect intensity, moments of individual brilliance and a whole lot of effort, like the traditional game of charades with the family on Christmas day.

Star decoration: Christian Pulisic is arguably the US’s first ever player with real world class potential. An exceptional dribbler with a knack for goals, whilst he is struggling to make a consistent impact at Chelsea Pulisic will relish the chance to star for the USA.

Stocking surprise: The attacking ability of this side may shock some teams. Timothy Weah, Giovani Reyna, Brenden Aaronson and Jesus Ferreira are all top talents that the side can use interchangeably, guaranteeing to trouble all the defences they play against.

Prediction: The US had for their standards a poor showing in their qualification group, finishing behind Canada and Mexico and conceding more goals than all teams in their group but the bottom four teams. This defensive weakness is likely to cost them when facing sides with quality players like Taremi, Kane and Bale. Expect exciting games but no qualification for USA.

Wales

Qualifying for their first tournament in 64 years, this tournament is a huge deal for the football mad Welsh. Both the side and the fans will be embracing every moment of this tournament, knowing they are one of the smallest nations in the competition with no expectations of them, allowing them to play with a freedom all can enjoy.

Star decoration: Gareth Bale seems to have decided to place himself into semi-retirement a few years ago. As such, many forget just what the Welshman is capable of. At 33, Bale still has enough left in the tank to carry Wales once again.

Stocking surprise: Aiding Bale will be some basic but capable forwards such as the speedy Daniel James and the strong Keiffer Moore. Most likely to impress though is 21-year-old Brennan Johnson of Nottingham Forest, a classy and explosive athlete that will be part of Wales three-man attack at some point.

Prediction: Gareth Bale is a big game player and for him, nothing will be bigger than representing Wales at the World Cup. With a few spectacular moments from him and maybe a few others, plus a lot of grinding from their defensive players, this Wales team will qualify from this group- just.

Group C

Undoubtedly, one of the main narratives around this World Cup is the fact it is surely Lionel Messi’s last, and as such, during the early stages there are not many other groups that will get as much attention as Group C. Becoming part of that narrative are Poland, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, three nations with limited ambitions and matching quality. Like the fabled three wisemen, they are just there to follow the great star everyone is watching.

Argentina

A nation with as much legacy – if not as many trophies – in the World Cup as any other nation on earth, a winning tournament has long been expected of them, yet failed to come. Could this finally be their year?

Star decoration: As the world builds up to celebrating the birth of Jesus Christ, a current living deity will have arguably his career defining moment, as Messi looks to cement his GOAT claim with a World Cup. This side, not as talented across the pitch as other Argentina teams Messi has been in, have happily moulded themselves into an aggressive resilient unit around their diamond Messi, giving him a chance to sparkle as well as ever. Remember too, it will be his strike partners (like Lautaro Martinez) that will profit from his magic too.

Stocking surprise: In Lisandro Martinez and Christian Romero, Argentina have potentially the best centre-back partnership in this competition. The two are ultra-aggressive, mobile and good on the ball, potentially giving this side the perfect base to play off for a proper shot at winning the whole thing. However, coach Lionel Scaloni has previously preferred veteran Nicolas Otamendi instead of Martinez, a choice which if made will bring great scrutiny, given Martinez’s great form for Manchester United this season.

Prediction: The dearth of talent in this Argentina team is overexaggerated. Behind those already mentioned, Paulo Dybala is capable of playing at a world class level, Angel Di Maria is a veteran with elite experience and still the ability to have game winning moments, Julian Alvarez and Thiago Almada are two of the best young attacking talents on earth…and I could go on. Driven by a desire to help Messi fulfil what many see as his destiny, this side will take some stopping, and that at best will only come in the semi-final or final.

Poland

This current Poland side is arguably the best the nation has had since the 70s. With only three squad players that are playing club football in Poland, the experience of the side is deep and their ambitions will match. Poland will expect to qualify from this group and will fear no one in a one-off match.

Star decoration: Robert Lewandowski’s current form at new club Barcelona seem to show he is playing as well as ever, even at 34-years-old. As ever, it will be believed that if you stop Lewa, you stop Poland. But as his 18 goals in 19 matches this season show, that will be easier said than done.

Stocking surprise: The attacking support Lewandowski has is underrated. In Arkadiusz Milik, Poland have another match-winner. The Juventus forward has a cultured left-foot capable of creating and scoring. Napoli creator Piotr Zielinski is on current form one of the best attacking-midfielders in the world. Jakub Kaminski and Michal Skoras are both young wingers being watched by Europe’s top clubs.

Prediction: This Poland side are primed perfectly for a serious run in this World Cup. They have the best number nine in the competition playing for them, with an able attacking line-up to support him and importantly some defensive nous to keep balance of it all. They should be better than Mexico and Saudi, and probably even better than anything Group D can throw at them too, including a depleted France side. Lewandowski will lead them to the quarter-finals.

Mexico

This Mexico squad come into this tournament with the unfortunate expectation that qualifying from the group is the minimum they should do, given they have done it every World Cup since 1994. They will go about trying to achieve that with a side based on high-energy and aggression, and getting goals (which may be an issue) through direct fast football. Yet, like a kid that finally learns Santa is not real, Mexican fans may be disappointed this winter.

Star decoration: Whilst Hirving Lozano (Napoli winger) will be who most expect to shine for Mexico, Raul Jimenez is a quality forward that simply has not regained form after a bad injury. In this Mexico side though, things will be built around getting the best out of the strong and classy forward, and with that support he should shine brightest.

Stocking surprise: This Mexico side have some solid defensive players with quality that may see them very difficult to beat. See Ajax duo Edson Alvarez and Jorge Sanchez, along with PSV midfielder Erick Gutierrez.

Prediction: Mexico have enough about them to get one or two good results in this group, but to qualify they will need to beat one of Poland and Argentina and I cannot see that happening.

Saudi Arabia

In a tournament in Qatar, Saudi Arabia will be desperate to give a respectable showing this World Cup. Do they have the quality to do so? Is Christmas celebrated in Saudi Arabia?

Star decoration: Saudi have a couple of homegrown veterans that will carry the burden to perform, but most likely to really shine for them is 22-year-old striker Firas Al-Buraikan. A quick and agile forward with an eye for goal, if anyone can star for their team (which will be difficult in this group) it will be him.

Stocking surprise: The real surprise may just be how bad Saudi are. As squads of teams like Poland improve due to their players getting top league experience across Europe, the likes of Saudi Arabia really will find it difficult not to lose by 3-4+.

Prediction: Saudi Arabia will do well to score a goal and keep the goals they concede under double figures this tournament.

Group D

A group favouring two established European footballing nations, Group D will be about how good Denmark and France are. Australia and Tunisia, lacking quality they have had in previous years, will be hoping stuffings do not come early this Christmas.

Australia

Having qualified for the World Cup five times a row after qualifying once ever before that, Australia have established themselves as a real football nation. With that though comes the inevitable transitionary periods where top players retire and there is a wait for quality youngsters to come through to replace them. That is where Australia are, and like a kid on 23^rd December, this is not the time when they will find what they are looking for.

Star decoration: Ajdin Hrustic is the most talented player in this squad. The Bosnian born creator is doing well for Hellas Verona in Serie A, and with the number 10 on his back, he will be expected to lead all that is good for this Australian team.

Stocking surprise: Many fans will be waiting to watch Garang Kuol, the highly rated 18-year-old forward that is full of pace and explosive strikes who signs for Newcastle after the World Cup. At some point, Kuol will be given his chance. A very different style of player may also catch the eye, in Stoke centre-back Harry Soutar, who has six goals in 10 games for Australia due to his proficiency in the air at 6ft 6in. Injuries have stopped him playing much for Stoke this year, but he will likely start for Australia in at least one game.

Prediction: Australia do not have the quality to do much in this group. At best, they may beat Tunisia, but getting by France and Denmark is beyond them, as they are a nation waiting for a new generation to emerge and lead them towards progress beyond simply qualifying for the World Cup.

Denmark

The Danes are a lot of people’s dark-horses in this competition, due to a well-balanced side that work in sync in a way that looks akin to a club side. The side are strong, inventive and ambitious, and thus will expect to qualify from this group at least.

Star decoration: The Christian Eriksen redemption story – who is back in the team after nearly dying during Euro 2020 playing for Denmark due to a heart-attack – is one of the best narratives in this World Cup. The creator turned midfield dictator for Manchester United is having a fantastic season so far, winning over fans with his intelligence and vision. There is no doubt, he is the man that can make a workman like Denmark sparkle.

Stocking surprise: The public seem to have forgotten how good Mikel Damsgaard is after his great performances in last year’s Euro 2020 competition, due to the fact he has not shined so far for Brentford, mainly because he is still adjusting to a new club and new league. But the attacking midfielder/winger has real ability and a role in this side that will allow him to remind the world how good he is. Beyond him, the defensive spine of the team is going to take some beating with the Viking like strength and aggression of Pierre Hojbjerg, Thomas Delaney, Simon Kjaer, Joachim Anderson and Andreas Christensen.

Prediction: Denmark should cruise through this group and if France have not yet found a midfield solution to replace their reliance on the injured Ngolo Kante-Paul Pogba combination, they may do so above France too.

France

Never has a team been so good as defending champions yet been so largely overlooked to defend their title. The quality is there, but there seem to be too many changes and young players coming in for people to believe in their side. But all that really matters is if this side believe they can win it themselves. That will be apparent from how they deal with a stubborn Australia in their first game.

Star decoration: Kylian Mbappe is arguably the best player on earth right now. Having made his name by winning the World Cup at 18 with a starring role for France, all eyes will be on him and the electric forward with an abundance of skill will be looking to perform.

Stocking surprise: The midfield combo of Ed Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni have been connecting well at Real Madrid under expert guidance, and if they start together we could see the beginning of a partnership that will lead France and Madrid for years yet. Just as surprising though, may be how veterans like Oliver Giroud and Antoine Griezmann fail to perform as they did in 2018, leaving France wondering why they still rely on these players past their peaks.

Prediction: France should not be readily dismissed. The elite quality throughout the squad, with a good start they will build real confidence that should take them to at least the quarter-finals  and maybe the semis. A step further this year will be beyond them.

Tunisia

The perennial African qualifiers are at a point they are just happy to be at the World Cup, knowing they had an easy route to get there, facing only one side that have ever qualified for the tournament to win their place in Qatar. And even then, they barely made it. So their older players will just embrace getting the chance to play on such a big stage and the few young prospects they have will play with no pressure.

Star decoration: Wahbi Kazri has gone from journeyman player to an established goalscorer in France’s top league. With this experience behind him and the number 10 on his back, Kazri is Tunisia’s current star.

Stocking surprise: Hannibal Mejbri is a precocious talent, as a skilful creative midfielder that has been groomed for greatness by Manchester United (currently on loan at Birmingham). Mejbri plays with energy and craft and will get enough game time to really show how good he is on the world’s biggest football stage.

Prediction: Tunisia do not have enough ability in this squad to qualify, but their experience and togetherness as a team that were mostly together in 2018 too may mean they can get a point or two on their way out.

Group E

In a group that contains two of the last three World Cup winners, it may be hard for some to find excitement in this group. If you are not a grinch though, a closer look at the two other teams will reveal this is going to be one of the more exciting groups in the competition.

Germany

The 2014 World Cup winners still have three players from that side in their current squad, underlining the winning mentality within the team that exists in all German sides. For once, very little is expected of them but as nearly always, they have the ability to go all the way. Like the orange crème in a box of Quality Streets, expect to see the Germans hanging around until the very end.

Star decoration: Joshua Kimmich is thought of by many as the best in the world in his (current) position of defensive midfielder (which nowadays includes responsibility on the ball too). A visionary passer, composed on the ball and defensively astute, Kimmich will be conducting affairs for this German side in their most key role.

Stocking surprise: The world is excited to see Germany unleash its elite teenage talents (Jamal Musiala, Karim Adeyemi and Youssoufa Moukoko) but the surprise will be just how good their veterans still are. Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer and Ilkay Gundogan are 101-years-old combined but provide the German’s with an experienced and still very capable spine they will turn to regularly.

Prediction: This side are for some reason being overlooked, with other national teams looking a bit sexier on paper. On their best day though, this German side are better than every team on this side of the draw except Brazil, meaning we are likely to see the German’s in the semi-final at least.

Spain

Unlike Germany, the 2010 Spanish winners have only one player from their cup winning side 12-years-ago, suggesting they lack that winning experience that can guarantee them a good run in this tournament. To look at their squad though, is to see quality throughout. Like a housewife looking at her Christmas feast though, the question is, will it be enough?

Star decoration: The young stars Spain have brought to the tournament are largely already established players showcasing their talent on a weekly basis, and thus they are primed to shine on this stage. This cast includes pacey wingers Yeremy Pino, Nico Williams and Ansu Fati (all 20), pass-master midfielders Gavi (18) and Pedri (19), and classy defenders Eric Garcia (21), Alejandro Balde (19) and Hugo Guillamon (22). This incredible caste of young talent could light-up this tournament.

Stocking surprise: Cesar Azpilicueta and Aymeric Laporte have been two of the best defenders in the Premier League for five years now. The two will be able to highlight just why they are so rated on the world’s biggest stage during this tournament.

Prediction: This tournament may be a touch too early for the same exciting young group that are set to light-up the tournament. Spain are more than good enough to reach the quarter-finals but once things get gritty, they may not have the attacking nous to get the goals they need to win the big games.

Japan

The Japanese are proven excitement in major tournament football, bringing energy, invention and attacking football, as well as everyone’s favourite fans (because they clean up after themselves). Japan bring one of their most experienced squads to a tournament ever, with 10 players 29-years-old or over, giving them hope of having enough steal to pull-off a big upset by qualifying from this group.

Star decoration: Signed by Barcelona when he was just 10, “The Japanese Messi” had to leave the Catalan giants because they broke FIFA rules in bringing him to Spain as a pre-teen. Real Madrid then picked him up and loaned him out to a variety of Spanish teams, before eventually selling him to Real Sociedad where he remains. In that time, Kubo has become a top quality attacking midfielder in a typical Spanish mould, meaning he may not get many goals and assists, but he will be constant threat in the last third against any team with his creativity, close control and composure.

Stocking surprise: The impact of Takehiro Tomiyasu at Arsenal has been underrated, as other signings have taken the shine. But speak to any hardcore gooners and they will tell you the fullback (capable of playing on the left or right) has brought a serious level of defensive resistance and attacking energy to the side from that role. Look out for more of that in this tournament.

Prediction: This Japan team unfortunately are in a group where they are unlikely to get a result from two of three sides. They will still give both a real challenge though, especially with a more experienced side complimented with a fluid attack. Like pulling a Christmas cracker, they are a fun part of the event that will come-and-go quickly but leave their mark regardless.

Costa Rica

Since the turn of the millennium, Costa Rica have qualified for every World Cup but one. Before that, they had only qualified once. Costa Rican football has now reached a level where they feel they should be at every World Cup. However, they are so this time whilst still relying on a few of the same players they have had for the last eight-years, and also missing a few of them too.

Star decoration: The names Bryan Ruiz and Joel Campbell will standout most and the side will still be relying on the two veterans for their goals, but it will their defence (the best in North America’s qualifying group) which will shine most as they attempt to put up resistance against the more rated teams in their group. The defence is safeguarded by goalie Keylor Navas who may remind people why he was considered one of the best in the world not so long ago.

Stocking surprise: 18-year-old Jewison Bennette is a young goalscorer that is continuing a family football legacy within Costa Rica. Signed by Sunderland not long after scoring on his debut at 17-years old in his home nation, the quick and skilful forward is following his father and uncle who both played for Costa Rica, giving him a great pedigree to build off. Given the number nine shirt for this tournament, Bennette will be looking to justify the faith showed in his selection.

Prediction: Costa Rica will be resistant but will find it hard to penetrate any of the teams they face in this tournament, evident from the fact they rely on veterans and a teen for their goals. From this group Costa Rica will not progress.

Group F

Due to the fading powers of Croatia and Belgium, coupled with the enthusiasm of a Morocco side in their prime and a Canada side riding a wave, this group may be more competitive than it looks on paper. Like a secret Santa exchange, expect some surprises!

Morocco

Morocco only have three outfield players over thirty in this squad which won six of six games in qualifying for the World Cup. With the majority of this squad in their prime, with a couple of standout stars, the team will be as confident as they have been entering a tournament since 1998.

Star decoration: Hakim Ziyech is undoubtedly a ultra-talented footballer. Although his talent is being far from nurtured in the stacked Chelsea squad, with 18 goals in 43 games for his national team, it is clear he is given the opportunity to shine as bright as he can in this side. A player capable of spectacular moments, expect at least one this World Cup.

Stocking surprise: A lot of the world seem to be unaware the Achraf Hakimi is one of the best fullbacks on earth. At times he has been used on the left for this side as they have another quality right-back in Noussar Mazraoui, wherever he plays Hakimi – who embraces a talisman-esque role for his country – will show how good he really is.

Prediction: Although not as poor as one may think given how the squad looks on paper, Morocco still find it hard to step-up and beat the B-level teams they face, let alone the A-level teams, evident from a 3-0 humbling against the USA earlier this year. They will have some spectacular moments but Morocco will not qualify from this group without a complete implosion from the other sides.

Canada

36-years since they last qualified for the World Cup, Canada are riding the quest of a wave having looked superb in topping the North American qualifying league, ahead of rivals USA and Mexico. For the first time ever, the side have players of actual top-league quality and the rest of the side are willing to work around them for results. The Canadians will take to this tournament with the same level of excitement the rest of their country shows for Christmas.

Star decoration: Alphonso Davies of Bayern Munich is well established as possibly the best left-back on earth. The lightning quick and skilful left-footer plays a more attacking role for his nation though, and it is one he has fully embraced with some outstanding displays from left-wing.

Stocking surprise: This side know they will need to concede pressure and withstand wave-after-wave of attacks to survive, but they do that with determination knowing they have a real threat on the counter in Davies and particularly Jonathan David, a young striker that has learnt to lead the line on his own superbly, with strength, pace and a natural goalscoring instinct, evident from his fantastic record of 22 goals in 35 games for Canada.

Prediction: With their momentum, there will be at least one surprise victory from this Canada team. Will that be enough to get them into the second stage of this competition? That is unlikely but possible.

Croatia

Having finished as runners-up in 2018, Croatia are in a place where they will find it hard to better that achievement, in this tournament or ever again. Although a proper footballing nation that regularly produce top quality players, Croatia expect more than just getting past the group stages of this competition.

Star decoration: Although he is now 37-years-old, if managed correctly Luka Modric can still be the best midfielder in the world on any given day. One of the game’s best dictating passing midfielders ever, Croatia’s hopes still weigh on him showing this at this World Cup.

Stocking surprise: Every football club giant on earth have spent some time watching the immensely rated centre-back Jsoko Gvardiol. One that has gone more under the radar is Luka Sucic, a 6ft 1in athletic winger with real ability, albeit unproven at any decent level. Coaches did think enough of him to include him in this World Cup squad though, and he will be given the opportunity to show why.

Prediction: This is not the Croatia of old, but the nation have reached a level where they are good enough at all times to clear a group like this. Getting any further will be a struggle, particularly due to the fact they have not found an adequate replacement for their former striker Mario Mandzukic, who has retired to become assistant manager of the national team.

Belgium

The Golden Generation of Belgium – and it really was golden – are on their last legs and have one final opportunity to fulfil their potential. They do so with more of that generation in the squad then they wish they needed to rely on, but the quality in the squad is undeniable, giving them potential to still have a great tournament.

Star decoration: Kevin De Bruyne is most people’s answer to “Who is the best midfielder in the world today?”, and for good reason. Incredibly two-footed, with the ability to create chances for his teammates from areas where only he sees a pass, KDB has all of Belgium’s hopes pinned on him, especially due to Eden Hazard’s stunning drop in standard.

Stocking surprise: With Hazard off form, Dries Merten’s off his peak, Romelu Lukaku injured and Belgium’s other forwards a bit too young to expect anything from, Brighton’s Leonard Trossard will be given the chance to take his excellent club form into the World Cup, and the intelligent forward is good enough to repay that faith with his ball striking ability and movement.

Prediction: Belgium have eight outfield players in the squad that are over 30-years-old, and at least four of them are likely to be in the starting line-up. Relying on so many players past their peak will see Belgium like the film schedule of terrestrial TV during the holidays; not as good as they once were and thus in a big upset I see Belgium failing to qualify from the group stage.

Group G

This group contains Brazil, making it a bit like a box of Quality Streets, in that everyone’s there for their favourite but will take whatever comes with it. What comes with favourites Brazil is a determined Cameroon team, an experienced Swiss side and one of the tournament’s real dark-horses in Serbia, making the potential games in this group one of the most exciting in the tournament.

Brazil

Tournament favourites in most people’s eyes, it is easy to see why Brazil are so rated. The team have quality and experience across their line-up and through their squad. Now twenty years since their last World Cup tournament win, at their rate Brazil are due, and thus all eyes will be focused on them to set a standard in every game they play.

Star decoration: As always, Brazil give their attacking talisman the iconic number 10 shirt, meaning Neymar – as he has been for the last 10 years – is the man who will lead the samba stars assault on the trophy. However, in terms of form, Vinicius Jnr of Real Madrid may just be the best attacker in this Brazil side, and the 22-year-old will be desperate to stake his claim for the 10 shirt from the 30-year-old Neymar.

Stocking surprise: Brazil’s incredible strength-in-depth in their attack has been duly noted by the football world, but their superb central (more defensive) midfielders have been overlooked amid this. In Casemiro and Fabinho, Brazil have two men that have arguably been the best in the world in this position, and in Bruno Guimaraes they have a man that looks like he will be the next best in the world in this position.

Prediction: Brazil are immensely driven based on their incredible squad, which only lacks quality fullbacks (for once in Brazilian history). Everywhere else, they have world class players across the pitch. With this quality, they will be in the semi-finals at worse, and whoever beats them will need to defend with their lives and have the luck of the football Gods on their side.

Serbia

After an unbeaten run through qualifying for the World Cup (which included besting Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal), Serbia will be determined to not only qualify from this group, they will be determined to go on a run which will earn them a place among football’s established elite.

Star decoration: Whilst the two Dusans – Vlahovic and Tadic – are the names that most catch-the-eye in this squad, it is Sergej Milinkovic-Savic that really makes this team tick in a way that may make the entire world – and all of club football’s giants – take notice.

Stocking surprise: Aleksandar Mitrovic has spent six seasons carrying Fulham on his back, and until this season he has looked like he was unable to do that in the Premier League. Now though, Mitrovic is playing like a man possessed, inspired to lead and determined to score, using his physicality and reading of the game to cause problems to any defender, which will include those he faces in this World Cup.

Prediction: Serbia should not only be good enough to qualify from this group, but like that auntie that loves her wine, they will take some stopping this World Cup even in the knockout stages, which could see them reach the quarter-finals.

Cameroon

A familiar and popular World Cup regular, African giants Cameroon are not the force they have been in previous years, mainly because most of the squad are still finding their feet at this level, with nine squad members under 25-years-old. Expect them to still be as competitive as ever, and have a tournament which will establish who will lead their next generation.

Star decoration: Andre Onana is arguably the only world class player in the squad. The goalkeeper is just settling into life in Italy for Inter Milan after several successful years starring for Ajax in Holland.

Stocking surprise: Number 9 Jean-Pierre Nsame has scored 16 goals already in Switzerland, which may give him confidence when facing the Swiss national team. A penalty-area predator with great movement, it would be surprising if Nsame does not score at least once in this team where he is the key focal point.

Prediction: Cameroon’s starting XI may include players from the Chinese, Swiss, Saudi-Arabian, Russian and Turkish leagues, showing what a range of standard they may have. Cameroon are a wildcard in this competition, with players unproven in the top leagues but with something about them. With this in mind, do not be surprised to see them take every team they face all the way, before ultimately failing to qualify.

Switzerland

Showing what a competitive group this is, Along with Brazil and Serbia, Switzerland qualified for this tournament in undefeated fashion (whilst Cameroon only lost once!). This Swiss side have largely been together for 10-years, now swapping a youthful exuberance for steely experience in what obstacles they present to their opponents.

Star decoration: Xerdan Shaqiri remains a player the guarantees spectacular moments every few games, and the 31-year-old will still be in charge of leading the creative side of things for this Swiss team, as he has done for a decade.

Stocking surprise: Once another of legendary talent producer club Borussia Dortmund’s rising stars, Manuel Akanji signed for Manchester City considered a back-up centre-back. However, the classy defender has regularly been in the first-team and shining in it too. The Swiss have an excellent defence that only conceded two goals in eight games to qualify for the World Cup, and Akanji will once again the jewel in their defensive crown.

Breel Embolo is a once rated protégé striker that will lead the line for Switzerland, including against his nation of birth Cameroon, making for an interesting game for him incoming.

Prediction: The Swiss will be difficult to beat and they may be the reason this group runs so close. However, they seem to lack the flair the other three teams have so will most likely fail to qualify from this group.

Group H

Probably the most evenly matched group in the squad, they are the only group where every nation has at least one world class player in their team. For the first time in 16-years, that may not include Cristiano Ronaldo to some. Nevertheless, all eyes will be on the star as he makes one last grasp for the only trophy to have eluded him in his career.

Portugal

Although many did say this at the last World Cup, this time it really must be Cristiano Ronaldo’s last chance for the ultimate glory in football. The 37-year-old may soon be playing his football in the USA or Saudi-Arabia, putting him into semi-retirement. Lucky for him, it is arguably the best Portugal side he has been part of, giving them the best chance to succeed.

Star decoration: The player that actually most excites in this Portugal team is Joao Felix, the elegant and fleetfooted forward that many feel is being kept from fulfilling his potential by playing his club football at the notoriously defensive Atletico Madrid team. For Portugal though, whether on the wing or through the middle (which may mean Cristiano Ronaldo starts on the bench), Felix has the freedom to show the world class ability he clearly possesses.

Stocking surprise: In a team full of quality attackers, it may be defender Cancelo that takes most plaudits with his ability to create from fullback (most likely right-back for Portugal). Arguably no other defender in the world can compare to his overall skill level, and when teams sit back against this dangerous Portugal team, he will find himself in space coming from deep, which is exactly how he shines best.

Prediction: Portugal have the ability and the mentality to go out and win this whole tournament. If they can qualify from this group unscatched (without injuries and/or suspensions to key players like defender Ruben Dias) they will go all the way to the final.

Uruguay

Whilst the World Cup has made some teams fan favourites (Japan, Cameroon, Brazil) there are others that have become internationally infamous, and Uruguay are one of them. Party-poopers ever since 1950, like the Grinch, the grey-blues are back to spoil everyone’s festive fun this winter.

Star decoration: Although the legendary duo of Luis Suarez and Edison Cavani remain, unlike the two past-their-prime strikers, Uruguay still have two world class players in box-to-box midfielder Fede Valverde and defender Jose Gimenez.

Stocking surprise: Left-back Mathias Olivera is part of the reason Napoli are having their best-ever start to a season in Italy. Quick, tenacious and as tidy as he is ambitious on the ball, Olivera is quickly establishing himself as world class and this World Cup will be a stepping stone in him doing it.

Prediction: Uruguay have an experienced squad complimented by a midfield in their prime. Whatever the formation (which can fluctuate for Uruguay), Lucas Torreira, Fede Valverde and Rodrigo Bentancur have enough about them to feed their plethora of stikers and support their resilient defence, still led by stalwart Diego Godin. All-in-all, this is surely still a side too good to go out at the group stage, although doing any more than that may be too far a reach.

South-Korea

Ever since 2002, no one underestimates what a South-Korean team can do, and if they did they got punished for it, as Germany did in 2018. In this tournament, the fact that fourteen of their squad still play in South-Korea will tell us just how good the country’s overall football has got, and not just how good their first XI can be, which we already know can beat anyone on their day.

Star decoration: Son Heung-Min is undoubtedly world class. Able to score from anywhere with both feet, he strikes the ball as well as he dribbles. Captain of this team, Son will be doing everything in his power to lead his country to victories and thus should be where all eyes are in their games.

Stocking surprise: Kim Min-Jae is another player that must be credited with helping Napoli start the season so incredibly in Italy. Kim is a 6ft 3in commanding centre-back, with ability on the ball but more importantly a fierce desire to take it away from his opponents. Kim is on the precipice of being a world class defender and will be winning plaudits for his display during this World Cup.

Prediction: Like the Christmas Turkey in the fridge, South-Korea will take some getting rid-off. Like the Turkey though, eventually they will get stuffed away. This team do not have a good enough squad to qualify compared to the other teams in their group.

Ghana

After missing out on qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, Ghana have had time to reorganise and allow some new talent to emerge and embed themselves into the team. With just two players in the squad that play in Ghana, the squad boasts a lot of experience trying to push a few young stars forward to lead them to victories in Qatar.

Star decoration: Thomas Partey is a world class defensive midfielder that has helped Arsenal lead the way in the Premier League this season. Although injury prone, there is no doubt when he is playing consistently Partey can be the difference both defensively and in possession for any team.

Stocking surprise: 18-year-old Abdul Fatawu Issahaku has been raved up since he was 16 as Africa’s next great superstar. An ultra-skilful and pacey attacking midfielder, Issahaku has been signed by Sporting Lisbon who are known to be great at nurturing talent. That talent will be given the opportunity to shine in the World Cup. So highly is he thought of, Ghana coach Otto Addo gave the teen the number seven shirt for the tournament.

Prediction: This Ghana side are going to be dangerous for all sides in this group with a lot of flair in their side, from right-back (Tariq Lamptey), to the frontline (led by the Ayew brothers again). Will it be good enough to qualify? Only if their defence can hold-out against some elite names from Uruguay, South-Korea and Brazil….which is not happening. Out at the group stage!

And there you have it! Holland to win it all! See more predictions on golden boot and others at instagram.com/jazztheory_.

Two games & only one outcome: Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

In sport, it is rare that the thought of a contest being completely one-sided could be utterly enthralling. Yet, that is the case with Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The saying goes ‘variety is the spice of life’. However, sometimes the simplest equations can have the most exciting outcomes. When a striker meets a wrestler, somebody is either getting knocked out or somebody is getting pounded out.

Both ‘The Irish Gorilla’ (a new self-given nickname by Conor) and the Russian bear-wrestler (not a nickname, a fact) have been dominant at the highest level of MMA due to their overwhelming skill in one specific area, which overcompensates for their clear comparative weakness in another. And the best part is, these skills and weaknesses lay in completely opposite areas between the fighters.

To add an extra layer of excitement, the two have personalities as starkly contrasting as their styles. Conor McGregor is a rude, brash, gangster-like, money hungry, trash talking king, knockout artist that has quickly picked up two UFC titles in a manner like no one else in MMA history. Khabib Nurmagomedov is the polite, simple, religious wrestling phenomenon that has slowly picked up win-after-win to become the UFC champion in an underwhelming fashion (which was not his fault due to a series of injuries meaning he fought a low-ranked opponent for the title).

At 26-0 and arguably never having lost a round, Khabib presents the immovable object to Conor’s unstoppable force. As the two steamrolled through the UFC, the fight has been talked about by the hard-core MMA fans for years and by casual MMA fans ever since they both fought on the same card on UFC 205. However, ever since Conor McGregor decided to attack Khabib in the infamous bus-dolly throwing incident, the fight has been the talk of the world. And now it is upon us.

The two only know one respective way to fight and as such, they will each be playing their own game in the octagon today.

Khabib Nurmagomedov’s game: Russian roulette

Fittingly, the best way to describe what the undefeated Dagestani will be doing in the octagon tonight is Russian roulette, described by google as ‘the practice of loading a bullet into one chamber of a revolver, spinning the cylinder, and then pulling the trigger while pointing the gun at one’s own head.’

Pulling the trigger – which for the for Khabib means going for a takedown – will mean potentially taking a bullet. There is no doubt that if he even has a slight hold of McGregor (for example, if he dives for an ankle or takes hold of a wrist), it is expected he will gain complete control of ‘Notorious’ (Conor’s original nickname), such is the level of his grappling. Khabib comes from a part of Russia which has disproportionately produced a plethora of great wrestlers, decorated at Olympic level. He has shown this ability by physically mauling opponents in the UFC, taking them down and bombarding them with powerful elbows and punches. This has been so successful he has arguably never lost a round. Only one fighter – Al Iaquinta – has ever really defended his takedown attempts consistently, but Iaquinta is also known as a quality wrester but was still taken down several times regardless.

Nevertheless, all fights start standing, and Khabib has shown he can take time to gauge his range. In this period, he can be vulnerable to taking punches, most notable in his fight against Michael Johnson. Khabib does appear to be tremendously physically tough, with a good ability to take a punch and power through to get into a wrestling/clinching position. But no man is invulnerable.

So Khabib is playing Russian roulette and he has to pull the trigger and largely hope he doesn’t catch a bullet, or it will be an early night for him.

 

Conor McGregor’s game: Hide and seek

To put it politely, McGregor would likely baulk at the suggestion he would ever hide. He won’t. He doesn’t. He is a come-forward counter-striker, the pushes forward, prods and probes, setting up traps to find the target for his laser left-hand.

But, in this fight, he has to hide in the sense he needs to be very, very particular about where he leaves his feet for fear of being taken down. And as he hides his feet, he has to still seek out Khabib’s chin. As someone that usually uses kicks to find his range and move his opponent about, Conor will have to think of another way to do this as wrestlers often target kicks to catch for the take down. So, Conor will have to ‘hide’ instead of using his kicks to find range, and he will still have to seek out the right range to land his knockout power.

Conor has fantastic footwork, which even showed in his boxing match against Floyd Mayweather by the fact he was quick enough to turn and pivot his way behind Floyd on multiple occasions (where he would land a few illegal blows on the back of the head).

The problem for Conor is regardless of his footwork, is that Khabib will be dropping down to knee level for a take down as soon as Conor is near. This means Conor simply needs to be more elusive than he usually is, because if he gets taken down, he is not going to find Khabib locked onto him until the fight ends, which could be sooner than the bell sounds given the difference between the two when it comes to the ground-game.

Prediction: Conor takes to fights like a duck to water. As soon as it starts, where others look nervous and take a while to find a rhythm, he is right on his game and usually landing shots. If Khabib can survive the first 1-3 minutes, he will slowly be able to work his way into a position to get a take down. As the fight goes on, stamina will be an issue and Khabib will end up stopping Conor in brutal fashion. And in my opinion, that is what will happen. Round 2 Khabib submission win.

Joshua vs Parker – The three most likely outcomes

Selling out the best part of 100,000 seats in venues across the UK, Anthony Joshua’s reign as heavyweight champion of the world is at Beatles-mania levels of popularity.

As charming outside the ring as he is devastating in it, in just 20 fights the 28-year-old has become a sporting phenome by knocking out all 20 of his opponents and unifying world titles. With talk of $500million contracts up next, it seems the world is his oyster.

Unfortunately for AJ though, it won’t be a salty sea snack he is trying to crack next, instead it will be a tough-nut Samoan from South-Auckland. The most talked about arrival on UK shores since the Beast from the East, Joseph Parker is bringing the thunder from down under, as the 26-year-old puts his WBO world heavyweight title on the line to challenge for Joshua’s IBF and WBA belts. Sporting a 24-0 record, Parker has earned his way to the very summit of boxing by knocking out 18 of his opponents and manoeuvring past the others.

It is in analysing his performances against most of those surviving six – most recently in his performances against Hughie Fury and Razvan Cojanu – that odds-makers, pundits and everyday fans have largely agreed that Parker will become the 21^st fighter to be knocked out by Joshua.

Will it be that simple though? Even though in boxing a participant can only win, lose or draw, ironically, anything can happen. And on that, here is my attempt at working out the three most likely things we could see happen in this fight.

 

• The long grind home for Joshua – 35% chance of this happening

It is undeniable that Joseph Parker showed issues in dealing with bigger and longer opponents Hughie Fury and Razvan Cojanu. Expected to win against both, Parker struggled to get beyond their reach advantages (4cm and 5cm respectively) to land anything more than the odd clubbing shot a few times a round. Against both, Parker also showed he can be picked off, due to an unremarkable level of head-movement, and a lack of guile in dealing with the range of bigger opponents.

So against Joshua, who has an even bigger reach advantage (6cm), is more explosive and even more powerful than anyone Parker has fought, surely this spells a routine blast-out win for the Olympic gold medallist?

Not if you consider the following.

Parker, despite his struggles, won both the aforementioned fights through his aggressive and methodical attacks. Showing speed in going from body to head, what Parker lacked in cunning he made up for in positivity. It is this willingness to put himself in the line of fire to get off his own shots that will make this into a grind for Joshua. Parker will come charging in, under, over and through Joshua’s jab, attempting to land on the jaw his team have claimed is fragile for so long.

Parker has enough power to put any heavyweight on the back-foot in his right-hand and isn’t afraid to pull the trigger, although should he be more frequent with it he would not have had the close-calls we saw against Carlos Takam and particularly Andy Ruiz Jr in his title winning fight, which many felt he had lost. In this fight and others though, it most also be noted that Parker showed a real champion’s mentality in pushing hard in the dying rounds and going for the win.

And as for when Joshua lands, which he will, frequently and often easily, how will Parker take the power that has knocked out 100% of the people it his hit so far? The answer to that will only be seen when it happens. However, a real x-factor is the sheer toughness embedded in the Polynesian genes. The likes of David Tua, MMA’s Mark Hunt and dozens of New Zealand rugby greats tell us these people can take a hit, and then some.

Another factor that isn’t being discussed much is Joshua’s weight situation. Whilst most see him coming in at 17.4stone as a positive, the fact he has not weighed this low since 2014 means he would have had to put his muscular frame through some massively draining work during training camp. Whilst this will definitely be conducive to him being light on his feet and dealing with Parker’s speed, will it aid his cardio? Joshua’s cardio has always been questioned but with two round 11 stoppages in his last two fights when weighing around 18 stone, could his team have been trying to fix something that wasn’t broke? Combat sport history has shown that fighters can often damage their own cardio by draining themselves too much, and this is a real possibility with Joshua.

So don’t be surprised to see this fight descend into a grinding, butting, intermittently brawling, bruising affair. The two will get tangled and tired as the fight drags on and each tries to land the telling blow. Joshua does not have the inside game to be able beat Parker in this kind of contest.

Parker will be durable enough to weather Joshua’s storms but will not do enough to come out shining.

 

• Parker is bombed out – 25% chance of this happening

You don’t need rose tinted glasses to see Anthony Joshua has had as spectacular a rise in boxing as any fighter ever.

Being technically sound and having the fight intelligence to set-up shots, as well as counter punch, he has Lennox Lewis-esque traits, but finishes fights in a style as violently as a prime Mike Tyson. At times watching him is to wonder who could possibly stand his assault.

At the same time, Parker doesn’t have much more than basic defensive skills and hardly a natural nous for being elusive. Couple this with the potential of Parker getting caught up in the headlights of an event bigger than anything he has been involved in before and no one would be shocked to see Joshua rock and then stop Parker early.

As mentioned earlier, Joshua is bigger, taller, heavier and more powerful. Parker’s toughness and the fact he has never been put down in his professional (or apparently amateur) career has been hailed by his promotional team throughout the fight’s build up, but the truth is he has never been hit by anyone like Anthony Joshua before.

The kind of power and speed Joshua has is guaranteed to be a shock to the system for Parker, whose best opponents thus far wouldn’t be ranked in the heavyweight top five or arguably top 10. We are undoubtedly going to see Parker in some trouble at some point in this fight. How he is able to deal with this will determine how well he does in this bout. If he is – like all Joshua’s other opponents – simply not able to deal with the power at all, it would result in the most anticipated outcome, which is a knockout for Joshua within six rounds.

 

• Parker drowns Joshua late – 40% chance of this happening

Giving Parker just 40% chance to win in this fight, even as an undefeated world champion, is considered a reach by many. Too basic and too small, how can Parker possibly win?

Here is how.

As highlighted already in this article, Parker is a strong finisher. He is considered to be tough and will be willing to prove it. He is also not gun-shy. Light on his feet, Parker doesn’t need the ability to find angles and time shots (which he lacks) to make this fight go way. In the early parts of this fight, all he needs to do is keep his distance and ensure he throws his powerful right-hand enough for Joshua to know he can’t just walk through him.

Joshua can be patient. Against opponents like Dominic Breazeale  and Carlos Takam, he never over-exerted himself to force the finish even though he dominated every minute of every round up until it ended. Thus, it is fair to assume that against someone who is arguably faster and as powerful than anyone Joshua has faced before, there will be a lot of posing and posturing as he looks for an opportunity to finish.

And as he waits for that opportunity and the rounds drag on, we just may see Joshua – even at 17.4 stone – start to tire and slow. With Parker’s natural inclination to finish fights strong, and a baying crowd screaming for action, if he is still around by the 10^th, 11^th and 12^th rounds, the New Zealander will be driving on for the knockout.

Although definitely not the most likely scenario based on a logical look at both their careers thus far, it is undeniable that Parker could take advantage of Joshua’s weaknesses and get himself one of the biggest upset wins in recent boxing history.

Three possible outcomes of Mayweather vs McGregor

…including how McGregor can win!

__________________________________________

After a build up that made WWE look like Japanese Kabuki theatre, the world is enraptured and Connor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather really could be the biggest fight of all time – commercially at least.

Yet, in the kind of ironic twist only boxing could produce, what will likely be the most watched fight in history is also the least debated fight in history. Anyone thinking with their head believes Mayweather will win. Only those thinking with their hearts feel McGregor will win.

This has not stopped the world talking about the fight though. Even the price of being ringside (which has currently resulted in thousands of tickets still being available at the Las Vegas T-Mobile Arena) and the pay-per-view price ($89.99 in North America) has not dented fans’ enthusiasm for the fight.

Venues showing the fight are selling out across the globe. Las Vegas is full of fans that have travelled thousands of miles to sample the atmosphere as sport’s two most charismatic personalities clash. It is these personalities which have been the talk of the event, along with the record breaking figures it will all create.

Real analysis of the outcome of the fight has become trivial amidst the carnival hype. Any chance McGregor has is being discussed as pure fantasy, whilst the immense likelihood of Mayweather winning has seen his own plans of action glossed over.

Therefore, on the day of the fight, to truly enjoy the occasion, let’s remind ourselves of three possible outcomes.

1) Mayweather to win via knockout

What are the chances? 50%.

Why and how? Floyd Mayweather is simply too precise and too quick, in the mind as well as in the hands.  At 49-0 and as a boxer honed in his profession since childhood by a father and two uncles who fought at a high level, Mayweather’s skill-set is simply too advanced for McGregor, someone who has never actually fought in any sanctioned boxing match.

The undefeated American veteran will be setting up shots from the off, switching the jab from head to body to open him up for right-hands. Floyd will be hitting his Irish opponent so clean and so often it will force a referee or Connor’s own corner to stop the fight by the 8^th round.

Mayweather nearly always enjoys a reach advantage.

Possible spoiling factors? Mayweather is used to a reach advantage against opponents, something he has had over every opponent in the last 10 years since he faced Oscar De La Hoya. McGregor has a significant 5cm reach advantage, meaning Mayweather will need to close the distance to land first, something that at aged 40 Mayweather may not fancy doing, resulting in the next possible outcome…

2) Mayweather to win on points

What are the chances? 40%.

Mayweather’s most natural style is to remain defensive.

Why and how? Winning a 12 round decision has become Mayweather’s most comfortable way to win a fight. With so much on the line, it would not be surprising at all to see him revert to his safety-first approach. Any kind of success McGregor has could seriously dent Mayweather’s legacy, meaning just like he usually does, Floyd will not take any risks.

Along with this mindset of Floyd’s, Connor McGregor’s toughness and underestimated stamina may also play a role in him lasting the 12 rounds. As he has stated himself, McGregor will not be facing the more taxing all body workout MMA presents and therefore will find 12 three minute rounds of boxing easier than many expect. At the same time, having been subjected to fighters trying to kick, elbow, knee and strangle him, the waspish attacks of the famously brittle handed Mayweather will not be enough to stop McGregor.

In his rematch with Nate Diaz, McGregor proved his toughness.

In this instance, Mayweather will simply play the role of matador to McGregor’s bull, cruising his way to a unanimous decision win as he has done nine times out of his last ten fights.

Possible spoiling factors? Mayweather has never been one to fight with emotion or worry about entertaining a crowd. But as the self-proclaimed “best ever”, he will surely be embarrassed to have a fighter with an 0-0 record last 12 rounds with him. There is also the chance that McGregor will leave himself so open in a reckless attempt to catch Mayweather that the stoppage will become inevitable.

3) McGregor to win via knockout

What are the chances? 10%.

Why and how? To some, even giving McGregor a one in 10 chance to win is too much. However, the bookies don’t have it that way (currently 4/1 to win) and at the end of the day, McGregor’s skill-set and abilities have to give him some chance.

McGregor is a man with a left-hand as sharp as most boxers. He is undoubtedly powerful (something even Paulie Malignaggi is willing to say about him) and he has timing and precision. To ask if McGregor can transfer this skill-set from MMA to boxing is to ask if there are different dimensions of the science of boxing that have not fully been explored. We have seen McGregor continually refer to Bruce Lee in the build up to this fight and with the great Kung-Fu master in his thoughts, McGregor is likely to come out to Floyd with his legs wide in a hybrid karate stance, arms wide and hands high, taking to the ring with a style different to any boxer Floyd has ever faced.

Many experts feel McGregor needs to constrain his approach and force it into a pressure-fighting style, forcing Mayweather to move back and brawl. The only thing McGregor would be forcing with this is himself, to conform to a style of boxing that has previously caused Mayweather problems against cruder foes (most recently best seen in his first fight with Marcos Maidana). However, by nature McGregor is actually a counter puncher. The thought he could cause Mayweather trouble through direct pressure is to devalue the skill it takes to be a good pressure fighter. Simply, McGregor needs to fight his own game. This usually sees him stalk opponents from range, prodding them with kicks, jabs and body shots, with the aim of opening them up to his murderous left-hand. The problem for McGregor is that he cannot use those weapons against Mayweather. Kicking is illegal and trying to open up Mayweather with a jab or body shots will see McGregor eat right-hands or end up in a rhythm disrupting clinching match (a tactic Mayweather thrives on).

McGregor needs to punch with Mayweather, not counter him.

So what can McGregor do to win? Be patient. In the MMA game, he is a master at staying in range. This shouldn’t be hard to switch to boxing, as long as he knows what danger this leaves him in. If McGregor tries to open up Floyd with a jab, he will be eating counter rights every time. Instead, he has to remain patient and not throw first. Connor needs to attempt to pull the trigger at the same-time as Floyd; punch with him. This will mean eating Mayweather’s jab regularly but by doing this, he can hope to time a power shot at the same time as Floyd deploys his right-hand or body shots, to land a power punch that could hurt Mayweather. McGregor also has a vicious streak that tells us if Mayweather does somehow get hurt, the Irishman will be all over him looking for the finish.

Possible spoiling factors? To ask someone to be more patient than Mayweather is to ask them to best one of his main traits. With the crowd baying and after eating a jab or four, McGregor may just start chasing the fight, which is when he will leave himself open to any of the aforementioned outcomes.

Overall, McGregor comes out of this as big a star as Mayweather, and it is that which is his true victory. Mayweather has set himself up for the biggest and (on paper) easiest pay-day a boxer has ever had, meaning his most treasured mantle as boxing’s best money-maker is also already cemented.

Nevertheless, whilst both remain winners in this sense, somebody has to lose on Saturday night, and seeing either one of these super-egos humbled will be the victory for millions of fans come the end of this unique event.

OFFICIAL JOSHUA VS KLITSCHKO PREDICTION

Surely you all knew this was coming right?

Anyway…

The first thing to think about is why Wladimir Klitschko (the more skilled and accomplished but overall not as good one of the famous boxing brothers) has chosen to take this fight. With his status as the biggest name in the heavyweight division for the last 10 years, he could’ve easily had an easier fight to get a world title back or could’ve retired.

Anthony Joshua provides two things for Wlad in his last days as a fighter. 1) A huge final pay day. 2) Respect for taking such a dangerous fight. No one will ever call Wlad a cherry-picker now. However, this isn’t me saying he is coming to lose, just that it’s like a final hurrah for him. But it’s still a factor. Wlad knows this is his final big test. He will feel no shame in going out against Joshua.

Does this mean Wlad will come in all guns blazing and abandon his cautious often boring style? Hell no! He couldn’t if he wanted to. And he probably does want to, but he won’t. The 18 months off will be good for Wlad. He will be in as good shape as ever (*cough* ROIDS *cough*), age – he is 41 – won’t be an issue. This Wlad will be as good as he’s been ever, which to me has never been that good. I feel he’s only reigned because he fought in the poorest era ever for heavyweights, but right now we’re in the best era since the late 90s.

Nevertheless, Wlad is still a legitimate great and a threat. He’s got good footwork, heavy-heavy hands, a world class jab, and a difficult style to beat – jab-jab-grab as David Haye described it. So he definitely can give Joshua some problems. And I think he will.

Even though he has lots of early KOs, Joshua likes to take a bit of time to find his range. It’s just that as soon as he does, the fight ends right away. It will take Joshua a while to find his range against Klitschko because Wlad is deceptively fast – both with his feet and hands. I expect Joshua to eat a few jabs early and for a period look slightly out of his depth. He can’t beat Wlad like Tyson Fury did in 2015, who is a boxer with more guile than both of the two.

So how can Joshua win? By forcing Wlad to hit the panic button, which won’t be too hard to do. As good as Wlad is, why I don’t rate him as highly as others is because under fire he panics. Against Fury he turned his back at least twice, something you won’t even see most amateurs do. Against guys like Alex Povetkin and Haye (his previous toughest opponents) he simply bear-hugged them any time they came close.

Looking at the fact Joshua has come in at his heaviest weight ever (17.12 stone), he is prepared for Klitschko’s style. He is 10lbs heavier than Wlad and will be looking to out-muscle him when Wlad tries to clinch, so he can control the pace of the fight. One thing we will learn is just how strong Joshua is, and if he is stronger than Wlad, it means he is one of the strongest heavyweights for a long, long time.

Speaking about Joshua’s physical ability is what brings us to what will in my opinion win him this fight; his incredible punching power. Combining both speed and brute strength, his punches – with both hands and with any type of punch – come in such explosive fashion that it is near inconceivable to see anyone taking them for any pro-longed period. It must also be noted, Joshua is not just a great, great puncher, he is also absolutely vicious with it. When he has someone hurt, he goes for the kill in ruthless fashion. We’ve seen him hit people when they are down (which is illegal) and even after the bell (against Dillian Whyte). Joshua fights as violently as any heavyweight since Mike Tyson himself.

Wladimir panics under fire because has been knocked out three times in brutal fashion (the last time was in 2004) before he found his winning style under the tutorship of arguably the greatest boxing trainer ever, Emanuel Steward. However, ever since then as previously mentioned, he has been extremely cautious about taking any punches, and when they do come he panics. And he has never fought a puncher like Joshua. Thus, logic states, when Joshua does unleash, Klitschko will simply not be able to handle it. Both mentally and physically.

This is why I feel Joshua will win, as soon as Klitschko feels his power. This could happen at any time during the fight, but will most likely happen around round five.

There are a few things to consider away from this prediction, which seems to be the consensus opinion.

Firstly, how will Joshua do at tracking Klitschko? The 6ft 6in Ukrainian is more mobile than any heavyweight Joshua will have ever come against. Secondly, with this in mind, as Joshua does try to find his range, he may have to eat a few of Klitschko’s best punches; namely the straight right-hand and the lead-left hook. However, we have seen Joshua take some solid punches from big-hitters like Whyte and also Dominic Breazeale, so unless he is hit with the perfect punch, I think Joshua will handle – and he will need to handle – Klitschko’s power. However, do not be too surprised to see Joshua hit hard and even hit the deck.

As for tracking Wlad down, Joshua is just as fast with his hands if not with his feet, and he also throws combinations – three, four, five and even six punches at a time, all of which will be hard to avoid for Wlad, especially as Joshua shows no fear of firing off when under fire (known as punching with someone). Also, although he has a basic style, Joshua is actually a very intelligent boxer. He always stays calm, even when at his most vicious, and he actually reads opponents to set up punches, which is something most Klitschko victims were not savvy enough to do. Finally, size matters. Joshua is also 6ft 6in and has a one-inch reach advantage, and at the highest level, every little bit counts.

For this reason I conclude there is a 65% chance Joshua wins via knockout. I feel there is a 25% chance Joshua is simply unable to track Klitschko well enough to bring the fight to a conclusive outcome, meaning it will be about which style (Joshua’s stalking-bombing or Klitschko’s jabbing-moving) judges favour or is imposed most, and even in this scenario I see Klitschko taking too much pressure to win the fight. Lastly, I only give Wladimir a 10% chance of knocking Joshua (which is silly for a guy with 53 knockouts but I’ll be the first to admit my silliness should it happen).

Boxing Pound-for-Pound list 2016

Much disputed, debated and demeaned too, boxing’s pound-for-pound list remains the definitive way to single out the best boxers in the world.

Making the selection for 2016 requires serious deliberation, as changes must be made. 2016 is only the second year in approximately 11 years of boxing that Floyd Mayweather is not at the top of the list.

Mayweather cannot be included on the list simply because he seems to be fully retired – for now, just like during a period between 2007-2009. Whether “Money” decides to sit on his 49-0 record forever and not try for the fabled 50-0 which would break Rocky Marciano’s undefeated reign is something we will likely find out in 2017.

Miguel Cotto, on this list last year due to his middleweight title run before it was ended by Saul Alvarez, and 2015’s two best heavyweights – Tyson Fury and Wladimir Klitschko – did not fight in 2016 either, so none of them can make the list.

This leaves at minimum three places that need to be filled on last year’s pound-for-pound list (which you can see here – https://jazztheory.wordpress.com/2015/08/03/the-10-best-pound-for-pound-boxers-in-the-world-today/). So who makes it into the top 10 pound-for-pound boxers of 2016? Read on to find out.

 

10) Shinsuke Yamanaka – Bantamweight, 26-0-2 (18 knockouts)

With now eleven defences of the WBC bantamweight title to his name, there is no denying Japan’s Shinsuke Yamanaka a spot in boxing’s pound-for-pound list.

In 2016 Yamanaka had his toughest two fights of his career and won them both well. First he comprehensively out-pointed Liborio Solis, the seasoned former world champion who proved himself world title level when he lost a decision to Jamie McDonnell just eight months after losing to Yamanaka. Then he faced Mexican former world champion Moreno, who took him to a split-decision in 2015 and won via knockout in seven rounds.

At 5ft 7in, Yamanaka is a giant at the weight and literally stands out among the current bantamweight champions as the standout boxer. He is a fast, aggressive, powerful southpaw with a tough style to deal with. However, the boxing world will be hoping he goes for a unification bout in 2017, which is when we will really find out his credentials.

 

9) Carl Frampton – Featherweight, 23-0 (14 knockouts)

The second name to make his debut in the pound-for-pound list, Carl Frampton is arguably 2016’s boxer of the year, and thus leaping into the top 10.

Firstly in February, Frampton won a close but clear decision win against British rival and WBA super-bantamweight champion Scott Quigg. With that win Frampton unified the WBA with his IBF title (although Guillermo Rigondeaux would disagree with that as the super WBA champion). Following that win, Frampton moved to featherweight to take on undefeated WBA champion Leo Santa Cruz. Frampton won a majority-decision in a fantastic fight.

The Irishman is a really well-schooled boxer, able to implement different strategies to handle different styles. Frampton can do this because he is a very intelligent boxer, whilst he also possesses real power and immense toughness. He finds holes in his opponents games and digs at them. With another year of big fights lined-up for him, Frampton could become a regular in the pound-for-pound list.

 

8) Saul Alvarez – Light-middleweight, 48-1-1 (34 knockout wins)

The more time that passes with “Canelo”, the more boxing fans realise he is not just a world champion, but a true elite fighter.

A slick, powerful combination puncher, Alvarez is fantastic to watch. Thus far only Floyd Mayweather has shown the capability of getting within his range without being touched by the southpaw’s thunderous hands. Top opposition such as Cuban Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout have been unable to out-box Alvarez, although the Lara fight was very close.

In the last 13 months Alvarez has beaten the legendary Miguel Cotto to win a middleweight world title, knocked Amir Khan clean out with one punch, and forced a referees’ stoppage against WBO light-middleweight champion Liam Smith.

Unfortunately for Alvarez, all anyone wants to see is him against Gennady Golovkin, the monstrous middleweight champion. His promoter Oscar De La Hoya has said on recorded video that he promises that fight happens in 2017. If this is true, by the end of 2017 Alvarez’s place on this list could alter dramatically this time next year.

 

7) Guillermo Rigondeaux – Super-bantamweight, 17-0 (11 knockouts)

Most fair-weather boxing fans will probably not have seen “The Jackal” fight, while many may not have heard of him at all.

Nevertheless, the lack of hype around the Cuban should not disguise the fact that this may be one of the most talented boxers ever, something Freddie Roach himself stated. Amazingly quick and agile, Rigondeaux is brilliantly elusive, whilst he also possesses a sniper of a left-hand.

However, the lack of hype has affected him in as much it has given a reason for other champions to avoid him. A two time Olympic gold medal winner and a two time world amateur champion, Rigondeaux took to the pro game like a duck to water, winning a world title in just his 7th bout in 2010.

However, the big fights have been few and far in between for Rigondeaux. It is close to three years since his last meaningful fight. In 2015 he kept ticking over with comfortable wins against highly spirited – if not highly rated – contenders.

Other champions like Frampton, Santa Cruz and Quigg have all moved up without fighting Rigondeaux. Although he is currently calling out Vasyl Lomachenko for a fight, at 36, with allegedly over 400 amateur fights behind him, we may never get to find out how good Rigondeaux really is.

However, right now Rigondeaux is still one of the very best boxers on the planet and someone that could be at number one on this list if he gets the right fights.

 

6) Terence Crawford – Light-welterweight, 30-0 (21 knockouts)

The fact that someone as good as Terence Crawford is not in 2016’s top five shows just how good the current crop of boxers are. An undefeated two weight champion, Crawford is America’s next great boxer and is proving it in every fight.

In between knockout out two perennial contenders in 2016, Crawford faced the undefeated WBO champion, Ukrainian Viktor Postol. In an outstanding display, Crawford completely outclassed him and cemented himself as light-welterweight’s elite champion. Now Crawford has some big decisions to make about when to move up to welterweight where the biggest fights are.

Whatever decision he takes, the rangy and powerful Crawford will be a match for anyone. Crawford is both a great boxer and a great fighter, knowing how to utilise his long reach and really punishing opposition with a variety of shots.

Currently, there is no one in his division that would be given any real chance at beating him, and that is why Crawford cannot be denied a spot in boxing’s pound-for-pound list.

 

5) Gennady Golovkin – Middleweight, 36-0 (33 knockouts)

“GGG” is already one of history’s most fearsome champions. He is a man that goes about destroying boxers with a calm confidence which terrifies many.

In 2016 Golovkin beat two undefeated boxers. First he destroyed Dominic Wade and then forced a stoppage against Kell Brook. Neither are world-class middleweights, meaning the Kazakhstani still hasn’t got a A-class middleweight to his name yet. As such, there is still something to be proven by GGG, which he can do when he takes on WBA middleweight champion Daniel Jacobs in March 2017.

Nevertheless, Golovkin has proven he is pound-for-pound quality through the manner of his victories. He is going through world title challenges like sparring sessions, man against boy. Some of his knockouts have been frightening and he is doing it with every type of punch; lead left-hook, straight right, body punches. Tough fighters are folding up in the face of his onslaughts.

While the Jacobs fight seems a mere formality, he still needs to get it done. However, the real fight for him is either against Saul Alvarez or a super-middleweight champion. With his unavoidable stalking style, how any of the aforementioned will handle his power will determine just how high up this list the Kazakhstani will go.

4) Vasyl Lomachenko – Super-featherweight, 7-1 (Five knockouts)

In just eight fights Lomchenko has made it to the top four of boxing’s pound-for-pound list. And the Ukrainian is so good, even his loss contributed to this remarkable rise.

In just his second fight, the two time Olympic gold and two time World Amateur Champion gold medallist was given a shot against world champion featherweight veteran, Orlando Salido. The Mexican grinded out a points victory, clinging on for life in a dramatic 12^th round. That single fight seems to have taught Lomachenko everything he has needed to know about the professional game, and he has since looked flawless.

Since then he has won all his fights including beating certified world class talent like Gary Russell Jr and Roman Martinez, and he has done it using a style that is all of his own.

Lomachenko uses angles and footwork in a way that has to be seen to be understood. He is constantly dropping his hands, bobbing, weaving, sidestepping and playing the matador to the bull, whilst often on the front-foot too. On the inside, Lomachenko is sheer murder. He finds punches on the way out of a tie-up/clinch that opponents never see coming, and he does this so often seasoned world champions like Nicholas Walters quit on him (during their fight last month which saw Lomachenko become a two-weight champion).

The only issue for Lomachenko is that his promotional team may look to rush him up the weight divisions. Should Lomachenko let him build his reign slowly, he really could be an all-time great.

 

3) Sergey Kovalev – Light-heavyweight, 30-1-1 (26 knockouts)

In a legacy sealing fight in November, Kovalev came away second best in the eyes of the judges but best in the eyes of many others.

Depending on how you saw that fight against Andre Ward, the position of Kovalev could be interchangeable with the others around him here. Some feel Kovalev is basic and was/will again be out-boxed by Ward. Others feel he has a physicality that others simply can’t handle. Whichever way you think, Kovalev is no worse than the third best boxer in the world today.

“Krusher” has the kind of punches that breaks through guards and can concuss with even glancing blows. Although he can be somewhat robotic, his tactics are a damn site effective. What is makes him really scary is that he seems to enjoy destroying people.

There is not anyone other than Ward that anyone would favour to beat Kovalev that he could realistically fight. Any of the super-middleweights would be huge underdogs against him, whilst the odds for a rematch against Ward would also likely be evens at worst.

As Ward showed, it takes a lot of character and strength – mentally and physically – to even come close to beating the Russian. How many are capable of this? Not many, if any, and that is why he must be considered one of boxing’s best three boxers in the world today.

 

2) Roman Gonzalez – Super-flyweight, 46-0 (38 knockouts)

Granted, having spent much of his career fighting in the minimum and light-flyweight divisions the opposition for Gonzalez has been limited. But being a four weight world champion at 29 years old with an approximately 80% knockout ratio cannot be denied.

This is why Roman Gonzalez is the second best boxer in the world today. The only reason he is not at number one, is because after a long career fighting with a hard style to maintain, “Choclatito” is arguably showing signs of aging.

Gonzalez has been near flawless for most of his career and has not had it easy either, going away to Mexico and Japan to fight the best little-men of the world to take his titles.

The Nicaraguan is a smooth power puncher that can finish a fight as soon as he hurts an opponent. In the last 12 months though, Gonzalez did not turn out any of his better performances. Firstly, he mundanely won a decision against 16-2 McWilliams Arroyo.  The biggest of his two fights was a hard-fought win at his highest weight – super-flyweight – against Carlos Cuadras, providing the Mexican with his first defeat, although at times Gonzalez looked like he could end up on the losing side.

Gonzalez is likely to have some really tough fights coming up, considering he is unlikely to move up a fifth weight division and his next opponent will likely be a rematch against Cuadras or Juan Estrada, another Mexican champion that cause him problems.

If he can show better form than he did in 2017, Gonzalez will remain one of the best two boxers of the world.

 

1) Andre Ward – Light-heavyweight, 31-0 (15 knockouts)

Andre Ward had as many fights in 2016 as he had done in the previous three years, and with this cemented himself as the world’s best boxer.

Firstly, his early year win against Sullivan Barrera looks better as Barrera continues to work his way towards a world title. Then after a routine win against Alexander Brand, Ward survived a torrid start to out-box Sergey Kovalev, in a real clash of elite champions.

Along with all the craft and intelligence we knew he possessed, Ward showed amazing courage, determination and stamina too, in coming back from a second round knockdown and taking the fight to the Russian.

Ward’s is this great because he can both effectively exploit an opponent’s weaknesses and neutralise their weapons.

A real technician, Ward has a great inside-game, enough speed and accuracy to fight on the outside, great footwork and amazing reflexes. An old-school fighter, “Son of God” has not lost a fight since he was 12.

The only fight on the radar for Ward right now is a rematch against Kovalev. In a rematch, it can be assumed a boxer whose game is largely based on reading opponents will come off the better. As such, not only is Ward the best boxer in the world today, he is also likely to remain so.

Five Boxers to Watch in 2017

Boxing fans will remember 2016 for a year of exciting fights, if not all of the ones we wanted to see.

The two boxers that came out of 2015 with the biggest wins – Floyd Mayweather and Tyson Fury – did not fight in 2016 at all. Gennady Golovkin continued his devastating reign as middleweight king without fighting any of the division’s top names (at no fault of his own), whilst great champions like Manny Pacquaio and Roman Gonzalez continued to rule, if not in the same manner they once did.  Andre Ward and Sergey Kovalev did clash in a true battle of modern greats, but who is the better of the two is even less settled than it was before they fought. All in all, although a lot happened in boxing in 2016, not a lot changed.

With all of this in mind, most fight fans know what they want to see next year. They want to see the heavyweight kings clash. They want to find out who the best welterweight in the world is in the post-Mayweather era. And of course, they want to see Saul Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin.

Yet, even with the New Year boxing wish-list set, every year there are always up-coming fighters to watch, those that are just a few fights away from joining the elite of the sport. So here are five boxers to watch in 2016.

 

Gervonta Davis – Super-featherweight, 16-0 (15 knockouts), 22 years old

“Tank” Davis about to blast a left hand.

Arguably the most talented fighter at Mayweather promotions, Gervonta Davis is a powerful featherweight nicknamed “Tank” for the way he blasts through opponents.

Perhaps unexpected for someone groomed by Mayweather, Davis is a come-forward fighter with an aggressive approach. The southpaw likes to close range with jabs and straight-lefts to get on the inside, where he opens up like a mini-Mike Tyson, unleashing dangerous hooks and pulverising uppercuts. The comparison is not too far-fetched with one look at Davis’ knockout ratio and his highlight reel too.

Because of the emphatic manner of his wins thus far, Davis has been accelerated to a title shot against Jose Pedraza, the skilled Mexican WBC champion, in January 2017. A win for Davis would signal the breakout of boxing’s next potential superstar. However, even with a loss the Baltimore native will have gained great schooling in world title level, and the potential will remain.

 

Tevin Farmer – Super-featherweight, 24-4-1 (Two knockouts), 26 years old

Farmer in the tiger shorts.

When writing these pieces, I have never before included two people from the same weight division, until now. And that is largely because the remarkable rise of Tevin Farmer simply cannot be ignored.

Allegedly the nephew of the great Joe Gans, an all time great lightweight that reigned in the late 1800s/early 1900s, Farmer looks the epitome of a well-schooled boxer. His footwork, defensive work and athleticism are a sight to behold. He makes opponents miss in a fashion similar to Floyd Mayweather and does it whilst producing a high output of punches too.

Yet this is a boxer who only won seven of his first 12 fights. Farmer puts this down to personal troubles during his formative years as a boxer, and also the fact he did not come into the pro-game with the benefit of a big promotional team, who can guide a prospect through the early stages of a career with careful match-making.

However, the southpaw from Philadelphia has comeback strong and is now on a 17 fight win streak. His eye pleasing style coupled with his underdog story has made him not just a fan favourite but a real celebrity favourite too, with many other fighters and rappers often shouting him out on social media, posting videos of his matrix-esque reflexes on instagram.

Farmer’s rise and popularity is surely to bring him a world title shot in 2017, with many calling for him to be put up against Vasyl Lomachenko in what would be a match-up of extreme boxing talent. Either way, 2017 is to hold big things for Tevin Farmer.

 

Hughie Fury – Heavyweight, 22-0 (10 knockouts), 22 years old

Fury using his huge jab.

Hughie Fury has quietly and even timidly made his way to world title level in the heavyweight division, in a manner of stark contrast in comparison to his (in)famous cousin Tyson.

Fury is rated 3rd in WBO rankings, with David Haye at 2nd. With Haye likely to pursue a bigger named opponent instead of challenging champion Joseph Parker for the crown, Fury could get a title shot in 2017, and he could just win.

Under the excellent tutelage of his father Peter – who did a great job in guiding Tyson to world level – Fury has developed into a classic boxer of a heavyweight, using his 6ft 6inch frame to utilise his range and pick opponents off. Thus far Fury has been brought through very well, taking on stern tests such as formerly undefeated Andriy Rudenko, the much avoided Fred Kassi and solid gatekeepers like Dominick Guinn and George Arias, all fights guaranteed to have helped him learn. A former World Junior Amateur Championship gold medallist, Fury has undoubted skill as a boxer, although he seems to lack power. However, he is young and has a lot further to develop, as his father openly admits.

Yet, his father also states he is now ready for any heavyweight on earth, and Hughie Fury is a dangerous opponent for any of them.

 

Mikey Garcia – Lightweight, 35-0 (29 knockouts), 29 years old

Garcia is a master of controlling distance.

 

Why is a former two weight world champion that was just two years ago on every pound-for-pound list included in this list? Because not enough boxing fans realise just what Garcia can achieve in 2017.

If he gets the right fights, Garcia could be a certified top five pound-for-pound fighter.

The former featherweight and super-featherweight champion first showed how good he is by stopping four former world champions in a row during a 12 month period from 2012/2013. At that point, Garcia was being seen as a future pound-for-pound number one.

Then a contract dispute with Bob Arum’s promotional company Top Rank meant he did not fight for 30 months. During this period, many seem to have forgotten just how good Mikey Garcia is. In his first fight back last July he reminded everyone of his prowess, with a knockout win over Elio Rojas.

A typical tough Mexican (fighting out of California), Mikey Garcia is the brother of Robert Garcia, a former champion himself and now one of the best trainers in the world. Mikey has clearly been taught well. He has a very fluid and intelligent style, showing great control of distance and a superb ability to setup shots. He is somewhere between a Juan Manuel Marquez and a Marco Antonio Barrera in terms of style, and has the ability to be remembered as great as the aforementioned Mexican legends.

In 2017 Garcia first faces the very dangerous Dejan Zlaticanin in late January. Should he get past that, look for Garcia to rule the lightweight division and be marketed as a possible opponent for someone like Terence Crawford or Vasyl Lomachenko.

 

Ievgen Khytrov – Middleweight, 14-0 (12 knockouts), 28 years old

Khytrov has a devastating left-hook.

The latest of the seemingly endless production line of top quality Eastern European fighters, Khytrov could be the heir apparent to Gennady Golovkin.

Whilst there is some dispute from the media about how to spell his first name – Ievgen? Evhen? – there is no dispute about his talent. Khytrov won a gold at the 2011 World Amateur Championship. A year later he lost a controversial decision to Britain’s Anthony Ogogo at the 2012 London Olympics. Another year later he turned pro, and has been steaming towards world level ever since.

A typical Eastern European fighter, Khytrov has a systematic yet aggressive style, liking to constantly stay in range of opponents where he looks for gaps to land his dangerous straight-right and even more deadly left-hook. His style can often neglect his defence, with his posture often straight-up and his hands at chin level. However, thus far it has not really caused him any problems, largely because anyone coming close enough to engage meets with his ferocious power. Along with his power, Khytrov also has a real sense for the finish, becoming bloodthirsty and relentless when he has an opponent hurt.

Khytrov is still working his way into world level but will make a giant leap into it with a win against undefeated American prospect Immanuwel Aleem, when the two meet in January. A win there will show that Khytrov is ready to move directly towards title level.

The Ukrainian has already said he wants to fight Gennady Golovkin and should GGG win his fight against Daniel Jacobs in March, Khytrov will be in the pipeline for what could be an incredible clash of hard hitting European middleweights.

UFC 205 Preview and Predictions

They say if you can make it in New York, you can make it anywhere. As such, the UFC’s have gone all out to put on the best show possible for their first ever event in “The Big Apple”.

The newly reformed UFC team – no longer run by the Fertitta brothers but still led by the affable and abrasive Dana White – have arranged for three title fights, three more former world title holders and over half a dozen more of MMA’s most exciting fighters to be on what is arguably the best card in the history of the sport.

The event is possibly even more exciting than UFC 200, even with the cancellation of two great fights this week. Unfortunately for MMA fans Rashad Evans – perhaps the original MMA poster-boy – will not be fighting American military hero Tim Kennedy for medical reasons. Similarly, winner of TUF and up-and-coming contender Kelvin Gastelum was unable to get even close to the welterweight 170lb limit, meaning he was cut from his bout against the always enthralling and amazingly active Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.

Nevertheless, this is still an unbelievable show of fights and there are many reasons to watch it, so read on for a preview and prediction of the best bouts.

 

Jim Miller (27-8) vs Thiago Alves (21-10)

Two veterans meet in a fight that is on so early it is only available online (via UFC Fight Pass). Regardless, all MMA hardcore fans will tell you this could easily be the most exciting fight of the night.

Both are past their prime but still looking to continue their careers in the UFC. Miller has just missed out on a title shot for seven years now but is still one of the most talented and toughest in the division. In 2009 Alves took on Georges St Pierre for the UFC welterweight title. To still be here now shows how good both actually are.

For this fight Alves dropped to lightweight in an attempt to prolong his career. Alves missed weight by 7lbs but will still face New Jersey’s Jim Miller, who is looking to further a two win streak to move towards a title shot.

Miller is so exciting he is always on the big UFC shows (e.g. UFC 100, UFC 200). He is a pressure fighter that likes to force opponents into a brawl and look to capitalise with jiu-jitsu. Alves is an ultra-powerful striker, capable of knocking anyone out with anything from a jumping knee to a left-hook. The two will be unable to do anything other than put on a really exciting fight.

Prediction: Alves is way too muscle-bound to have been able to make the lightweight limit. The attempt to even try will have done his war-torn body no good. Jim Miller will end up submitting him after an exciting round or two.

 

Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) vs Michael Johnson (18-10)

From two fighters in the twilight of their careers to two in their primes, this is a great bout between two fighters in their primes.

Nurmagomedov, could be the best fighter in MMA today. He has amassed the kind of undefeated record rarely seen in the sport and has done it in flawless fashion. The Dagestani has just seemed too strong and skilled in wrestling for any of his opponents thus far, which includes former lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos.

Michael Johnson on his day can beat anyone. With his mix of aggressive Muay Thai on top of a solid wrestling background, as an underdog he has already beaten top names like Edson Barboza and Tony Ferguson. He is also coming off the back of the best win of his career, with a brutal first round one punch knockout against Dustin Poirier.

Prediction: The fact that an impressive win will see cries for him to fight the winner of Mcgregor vs Alvarez will mean Khabib will go out to destroy Michael Johnson. Expect a comprehensive three round beating win for him.

 

Frankie Edgar (20-5) vs Jeremy Stephens (25-12)

The clip of Connor McGregor shouting “who the f*ck is that guy?” in response to a challenge from Jeremy Stephens at a UFC 205 press conference in September went viral around the world.

It was a hilariously blunt and condescending response, typical of the Irish champion. However, he knows who Stephens is and anyone interested in the UFC Featherweight title race does too. An ultra-aggressive fighter with the kind of one-punch knockout power that arguably only McGregor himself has at the weight, Stephens is a threat to anyone in the UFC’s featherweight division.

Taking him on is the veteran and long time face of New York MMA, former UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar. When he comes in to his traditional Biggie Smalls track (Kick in the door), the crowd will go crazy for this favourite. Edgar is one of the most skilled fighters in MMA, with excellent cardio, footwork, boxing and wrestling. He has been one of the very best in the sport for at least six years now.

The two clash looking to get themselves back in position to fight the likes of McGregor (if he ever fights at featherweight again).

Prediction: Edgar will be too skilled and after surviving some scary moments, he will come away with a decision win.

 

Chris Weidman (13-1) vs Yoel Romero (12-1)

Weidman is famous for being the man who destroyed Anderson Silva, by knocking him out to win the middleweight UFC title and then breaking Silva’s leg in the rematch by checking a kick.

From thereon, Weidman is only one poor performance (a loss to Luke Rockhold in which he says he was fighting ill) from looking like one of the very best in the world. The New Yorker destroyed the likes of Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort in defence of his title, showing brutal ground-and-pound and amazing toughness in doing so.

Yoel Romero is an Olympic games silver medallist in wrestling. His only loss came during his 6^th fight, which was at light-heavyweight. Now 39 years old but still in very obviously top shape, the Cuban will know he needs this win to get a title shot in decent time. Since coming into the UFC Romero has won seven fights in a row and is guaranteed a title shot with a win here.

Both have a similar style of coming forward, firing off powerful strikes, and looking to implement their respected wrestling (Weidman being a collegiate All-American), making this a really intriguing and likely gruelling battle.

Prediction: Weidman seems to be able to take the better punch of the two and that will be the only difference in what is going to be a real war. Weidman by late stoppage for the win.

 

Straw-weight title fight: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0)

Joanna Jedrzejcyzk is maybe the best female fighter in the world and also one of the best strikers in all of MMA.

Before the age of 30 the Polish has gone on from one of the most accomplished Muay Thai/Kickboxers ever to the best female straw-weight on earth. On top of being quick, accurate and vicious with it, she has an amazing output of strikes, as well as a superb ability to stay/get back on her feet during scrambles. This makes her a nightmare for any opponent.

Challenging her for the title is fellow Pole Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Similarly, her game is also based on a slick and consistent output of strikes, but more from the inside than from the outside, which is where Jedrzejcyzk is at her best. This will see the bout a real chess match that will be about who controls the distance better.

Prediction: Jedrzejcyzk will be driven close in what could turn out to be one of MMA’s great rivalry between two Pole’s ruling a division. On this occasion though it will be the more experienced fighter – Jedrzejcyzk – who handles the pressure better and comes away with the win.

 

Welterweight title fight: Tyrone Woodley (16-3) vsStephen Thompson (13-1)

Thompson is one of America’s best ever kick-boxers (going 57-0) and has adapted to MMA brilliantly. His style is something to behold, seeing him skipping around the ring, hands by his side, only stopping to fire off rapid punches or knockout kicks. After a slight adjustment period, “Wonder Boy” has adapted his unique style to MMA to devastating fashion.

Woodley on the other hand has kept plugging away towards title level in MMA, coming up short a few times before grabbing his opportunity in brutal fashion in his last fight, winning the UFC welterweight title by first round knockout against Robbie Lawler.

Woodley has the perfect tools needed to counter Thompson’s unique style. Woodley is an explosive athlete, a great wrestler and has an unbelievably powerful right-hand. With everything that is on the line in this fight – not only the title but also potentially huge fights against Georges St Pierre or even Connor McGregor – both will be putting it all on the line in what will be a tense and exciting fight.

Prediction: Expect the fight to be uneventful early on but explode into life eventually. At this point Thompson will find his range and pick Woodley off for a late round four TKO win.

 

Lightweight title fight: Eddie Alvarez (28-4) vs Connor McGregor (20-3)

McGregor has been presented with an opportunity for real MMA immortality. No one in UFC history has ever held two titles at the same time. The fact McGregor has gotten it without even defending his featherweight title tells us it is a chance the UFC has gifted him just to profit on the legend that is McGregor.

Alvarez on the other hand has had nothing gifted to him in the UFC. He made his debut against Donald Cerrone, which he lost. From there he has fought two former champions and then the champion (Rafael Dos Anjos) who was on his most fearsome form.

Alvarez has fought some of the best in the world before he even got to the UFC. During his career he has shown amazing toughness, great boxing and also fight intelligence. Even though his natural style is to get on the inside and basically brawl, Alvarez has shown that he knows when to use wrestling to grind out a win.

McGregor has cruised through an MMA career (with the occasional blip) as smoothly as he strikes. However, for all the spinning back kicks, faints and taunts, McGregor largely relies on the knockout power in his left hand to win fights. The problem for opponents is he is not at all predictable with how he throws it; whether it is a straight shot coming from the chest, an overhand, an uppercut or in any other fashion possible. He is also one of the sharpest strikers in MMA history.

Yet, McGregor has not fought anyone like Alvarez before. This is an opponent who has won fights with punches, kicks and wrestling. When McGregor comes to throw, Alvarez will fire three or four shots back at him. This is a very tough fight for McGregor.

The two will clash for what can only be an epic bout and at the end of it McGregor will either be a certified legend, or have his legend end.

Prediction: Alvarez needs to come out more cautious than he has ever done, as usually it takes him a while to find his boxing range, at a time within which he will be vulnerable to McGregor’s speed and power, especially as McGregor has a five-inch reach advantage. McGregor will come out faster than ever, knowing his best chance to finish the fight is early. Alvarez will have no qualms about looking to smother and wrestle during this period, even if it causes mass booing.

 

If – and it is a big if – Alvarez survives the first round or two, the key question is about McGregor’s stamina at 155lbs. He has fought there before but never gone over three rounds. At the 170lbs welterweight limit (vs Nate Diaz), we saw McGregor slow badly from round three. If this happens at lightweight, Alvarez (known for his stamina) will eat him alive, with punches in bunches and a wrestling game that will see him push McGregor back and drain him.

 

This is actually how I see the fight going. Stopping Alvarez with punches has only been done by 6ft 1’ welterweight Nick Thompson nine years ago. Alvarez has survived some real barrages from many top fighters and can do it again, before taking McGregor into deep waters for a late round five stoppage.

How Sikh issues are easy pickings for British media sensationalism

Once considered the darlings of Britain’s immigrant community, it seems Sikhs are losing this status.

Whereas the great British public were once told – by none other than the most revered Brit of all Winston Churchill – they were highly indebted to Sikhs, modern media is now telling them they should be wary of the same group.

The disciples of Guru Nanak Dev Ji have often been hailed as the UK’s best example of integration, having embedded themselves into the culture and society since first coming to these shores en masse around the 1960s. In recent years though, Sikhs have received the kind of media coverage usually reserved for more commonly maligned communities.

Currently, this is based around an “inter-faith marriage” protest that took place on September 11, in the quiet Midlands town of Leamington Spa. However, these protests have been occurring for years and have been covered in the same manner by mainstream press since 2012.

 

 

“It really must be questioned what any self-respecting journalist or media outlet is doing in consciously aligning Sikh protesters with likes of jihadists.”

 

 

According to most reports, the protesters were armed men, extremists hell-bent on causing racial and religious division, oppressing women and enforcing their will on others by threatening them with bladed-weapons.

This depiction is based on a sensationalist, surface level analysis of the protests, unfitting of something which has been in mainstream media for four years. In the modern day context of religious fundamentalism, it really must be questioned what any self-respecting journalist or media outlet is doing in consciously aligning Sikh protesters with likes of jihadists.

This is not to say that protest itself – which saw 55 men arrested –, or those involved in it, are whiter-than-white. Nor is it an attempt to deflect attention from other issues within the Sikh community.

But it must be understood that the manner of the coverage of the recent Leamington incident is more of a hindrance than a help in the pursuit for a resolution. Headlines of “sword wielding” Sikhs obscured the real issues at hand. Many feel such blatant hyperbole is due to the attention any story about religious militancy gains nowadays. News seems to now be just another commodity in an increasingly extremist capitalist society.

 

 

“Many British-born Sikhs who feel as at home in the UK as any native, are reaffirming themselves with their religion.”

 

 

The fact is that prior to this Sunday past, there had not been a single arrest at any previous protest, despite numerous allegations of violence and intimidation. At Sunday’s protest, even with “sword-wielding” conjuring up images of gladiatorial warfare, not one of the 55 arrests was for violent or threatening behaviour, only for aggravated-trespass. It must also be noted, Sikh Youth UK, the group most linked with the protest, are a community group who have received awards for their efforts in tackling addiction and other domestic problems within the British-Punjabi community.

The protests stem from a huge divide between a passionate Sikh youth and an apathetic older generation. The elders came to Britain with the aim of simply settling in and surviving, to the point of sacrifice. Now, many British-born Sikhs who feel as at home in the UK as any native, are reaffirming themselves with their religion. Led by organisations such as Basics of Sikhi and Sikh 2 Inspire who teach Sikh history and scripture in English, many are now aware of what they should expect of their Gurdwaras (Sikh temples). As such, many feel completely let down by these institutions.

The first thing expected of a Gurdwara is treating the Sikh scriptural Guru – Guru Granth Sahib Ji – in as much reverence as the 10 Sikh Gurus who led the faith from the 15^th-18^th century. Therefore, knowing Guru Granth Sahib Ji is at the centre of a showcase wedding, where His vows are not heeded or even understood, is paining to many. During the Sikh matrimonial ceremony, known as the Anand Karaj, a couple actually makes vows to the Guru, not to each other.

Without further getting into nuances which are better explained on the respective YouTube channels of the aforementioned educational organisations, the Anand Karaj can only be meaningful to a Sikh that loves their Guru. This is not a fringe opinion. It is backed by a massive majority of Sikh scholars and academics, who all agree with the decrees on the topic stated in the Sikh code of conduct (Rehat Maryada) published in 1950 and by the Akal Takht (the supreme governing body of the Sikhs).

The protesters and their supporters encourage mixed-faith couples to do anything but the Anand Karaj, such as have the civil ceremony in a Gurdwara, followed by a blessing ceremony. However, the thought is that no one should be entitled to the Anand Karaj ceremony simply because they can pay for it, not even those born into a Sikh family. It is something which should only be available to those who have love for the Guru.

How can this be established? Whilst it can possibly lead into the deepest of rabbit-holes, in essence, it is actually fairly simple. Couples should be asked why they want an Anand Karaj. Answers based on tradition or for the sake of a spouse should not suffice. There are also provisions being made for some kind of course to go on prior to having an Anand Karaj, to understand all it encompasses before making the decision to have such a ceremony. Simply, something so sacred to so many should not be made available to anyone at the behest of a cheque, no matter who writes it.

The protests are an attempt to force Gurdwaras to adhere to Sikh protocol. The generally held belief for Gurdwaras going against these rulings is for the financial gain, with the UK Asian wedding industry estimated at being worth around £3billion a year.

 

 

“Writers become overnight experts on something based usually only on an ancestral geographic connection to those entwined in the issue.”

 

 

Many of the UK’s 300+ Gurdwaras are currently in the hands of business-minded elders, who are uncomfortable passing on the powerful positions they are in to a younger generation with different aims. This is the cause of all the problems. What adds fuel to this fire though, is the media coverage of these issues which is more sensational than informational.

It seems pointing at a bunch of brown men with beards and turbans and shouting extremist is acceptable for the sake of a news story, and Sunday’s reaction is not the only example.

In comparison, when a Jewish group tried to enforce a ban on their women driving they were at worst referred to as “ultra-orthodox”, whilst Christian groups who hold aggressive anti-abortion protests do not get called anything akin.

An example of this unfair coverage is a piece in the Daily Mail, from November 2015, which accused UK Gurdwaras of running terror training camps. This allegation was based on a dossier which was allegedly given to UK authorities via Indian intelligence. Yet, the Sikh Council UK found that British authorities said they never received any such document, and as of yet there have been no police investigations based on it.

Nevertheless, the Independent Press Standards Organisation (IPSO) did not feel this kind of journalism was a breach of their code of conduct. There are many other examples of British media being quick to associate Sikhs with terrorism/extremism, such as when the Birmingham Mail accused Sikhs of supporting terrorism in April because of the misreading of a flag.

To get away with such blatant disparity, the heads of these media organisations usually invoke a legion of Asian writers to lead the charge at likening the Sikh protesters with the likes of Isis. These writers are given licence to become overnight experts on something based usually only on an ancestral geographic connection to those entwined in the issue. Usually these pieces are simply accusatory, without much depth or analysis. Based on such coverage, the “Sikh extremism” line becomes the simple narrative of a story which is much more complicated.

 

 

“It is only fair those speaking of a growth in “Sikh radicalism” also cover the rise in Sikh philanthropy.”

 

 

Even when looking back at previous stories on “Sikh militants”, the British media still surpassed themselves with coverage on Sunday’s incident. Nearly every headline that pronounced the Sikhs were “armed”, without being clear that the Sikhs were near entirely armed with the Kirpan. The 5 Ks that Amritdhari (initiated) Sikhs must wear is taught on the national school curriculum, and has been for decades. Therefore, mainstream journalists should – and most likely did – know that thousands of Sikhs are literally always armed. The police said they found one weapon which was not a Kirpan, but until it becomes clear what that one weapon is (as many things Amritdharis wear could be seen as weapons) it is unfair to assume the intention of having it there.

There has never previously been headlines about “armed Sikhs”, even when many Amritdharis were arrested at the #SikhLivesMatter protest in London. This leads many Sikhs to the conclusion that the headlines were wilfully ignorant. Sensationalism does sell after all.

Something that many seem uncomfortable with is the fact that clearly, many British-Sikhs are becoming more adherent to their faith. Mainstream media seem to highlight this growing adherence only through protests or political conflict.

What is not highlighted is the positive impact this is having. There has been a massive growth in street langar feeds, with over 10,000 free meals served a week all over the UK by Sikh organisations. Groups like Khalsa Aid and United Sikhs are doing more international humanitarian work than ever. Last year the Guru Maneyo Granth Gurdwara opened a free multi-million pound education centre, entirely built and paid for by volunteers.

It is only fair those speaking of a growth in “Sikh radicalism” also cover the rise in Sikh philanthropy. The Sikh Press Association are constantly churning out examples of this kind, so a source for such stories is now there.

The internal struggle going on between different generations of Sikhs has definitely exposed many problems within the community. Just as exposed however, is the contempt with which media can treat a minority group. Sikhs simply hope others recognise that one area of conflict based on a single ceremony does not negate the many inclusive, egalitarian facets of the Sikh faith, and therefore warrant the sensationalism which we are now regularly seeing.

The courageous tale of CM Punk

This weekend CM Punk will attempt to make the huge leap from WWE superstar to UFC fighter without stumbling into the brutal realms of humiliation that are only accessible through MMA.

Having spent the last 16 years as a professional sports entertainment actor/wrestler, Punk (real name Phillip Brooks) will be making his professional MMA debut at the UFC 203 card, headlined by a heavyweight title fight between Alistair Overeem and Stipe Miocic, in Ohio on Saturday night.

Punk has been handed the opportunity based purely on his own popularity, which is part of the reason he still wishes to be called CM Punk while competing. Although one of the biggest stars the WWE has produced in recent years, Punk is hardly one of the more domineering characters that has left fans wondering how he would do a in real fight, in the way Brock Lesnar did.

Yet, something gave him the urge to want to try and compete in the Ultimate Fighting Championship. Thus, nearly two years after announcing he had signed a multi-fight contract with the UFC, today Punk will finally take to the cage for the first time.

 

“What Punk is doing arguably makes him the bravest man in sports today.”

 

The move is car crash TV at its finest, or perhaps worst. Take away the celebrity aspect of seeing one of the WWE’s most popular characters step into the world of professional combat and the intrigue lays in watching a man doing something that is simply very, very dangerous.

There is no hidden, long-time honed talent behind the decision, nor is there any obvious physical gifts that Punk possesses that could lead anyone to think he will be a natural at the highest level of combat sports. Nor is there any clear financial incentive or fame boosting opportunity for Punk here. The move is purely about him taking up a challenge he always wanted to try out.

This is not like when Michael Jordan tried out baseball or Dwayne Chambers tried rugby. It is unlike any of the times celebrities/sportsmen have tried out a new career. Punk has gone from nowhere to the highest level of martial-arts in the world, without doing anything in between. And the repercussions for doing this could be devastating.

As such, what Punk is doing arguably makes him the bravest man in sports today.

This may seem like an outlandish statement, especially whilst the Paralympics is going on (although some would say it is patronising to call those athletes “brave” – but that’s an article for another day). However, when Punk’s move is compared to others in a similar position who made the same choice, it becomes apparent just how courageous it is for Punk to be stepping into the famed UFC octagon on Saturday night.

 

“Brock Lesnar – who actually lost on his UFC debut – entered MMA as one of the most decorated collegiate wrestlers in American history. Punk has no such background.”

 

Firstly, there is actor Jason David Frank, mostly – or perhaps solely – known for his role in Power Rangers, the popular children’s TV series. He also went from pretending to fight on TV to attempting to do it for real in a cage. When he did it though, the level that the Green Power Ranger fought at was a lot lower than the UFC. In fact, if the UFC is the Champions League of MMA, Frank fought in the bottom end of the Championship on his debut. He also did it having already been inducted into the World Karate Union, alongside none other than Chuck Norris. Frank had one professional fight in 2010, won impressively, and hasn’t fought since.

Jason David Frank, the Green Power Ranger

Then there is Brock Lesnar, who did actually make the jump from the WWE into UFC and look like he belonged there, for a while at least. Once again though, Lesnar made his debut at a level significantly lower than the UFC, fighting on a K-1 Heroes card, taking on an opponent with a losing record. After winning in the first round by spectacular ground-and-pound knockout, Lesnar was signed to the UFC where he ended up winning the heavyweight title, in between getting submitted, knocked-out and failing a few drugs tests, with one of these failures coming as recently as July at UFC 200. Overall though, Lesnar’s MMA career was a huge success for someone who only had a few years of training, compared to those he was competing against who had spent a lifetime working towards UFC level.

For those that see this as a precursor to what a WWE star can achieve in the UFC, note that Brock Lesnar – who actually lost on his UFC debut – entered MMA as one of the most decorated collegiate wrestlers in American history. Punk has no such background. Also, Lesnar is a 6’3 man-mountain with a level of brute, explosive strength that very few people on earth can match. Similarly, this is why other big men with comparable size and strength took to the sport of MMA too; namely Bobby Lashley, Dave Bautista and Bob Sapp. Punk visibly does not have the kind of obvious raw strength of these men, which made them dangerous in at least some respects for any opposition.

Then there is the likes of Herschel Walker and James Toney, both of whom made their MMA debuts at a high level, comparable to what Punk is doing.

NFL American football legend Walker had two bouts in 2010/11 with Strikeforce (an organisation which was deemed second only to the UFC at one point) at the age of 48 and 49 within a one year period, winning both by referee’s stoppage. Walker’s success was only surprising due to his age, as his physical gifts as an athlete were always recognised, whilst it was also known he had been training in martial-arts throughout his life, gaining a black-belt in taekwondo.

James Toney came into the UFC on the tail-end of a boxing career which saw him widely recognised as one of the best of his generation. Having been very vocal for years about his belief he could beat any MMA fighter in any kind of fight, he was given the chance to prove it in 2010 at 42 years old. Pitched against the blue-collar hero and MMA legend Randy Couture who was 47 himself at the time, Toney was quickly choked out before a rapturous crowd and has not fought in MMA since.

 

“One look at his opponent tells us it is far from a novelty fight.”

 

Looking at this unorthodox selection of those that made unexpected jumps into the world of MMA, it is clear Punk lacks both the obvious physical gifts and the martial-arts experience that saw the aforementioned athletes given a chance to compete in MMA. His martial-arts background goes no further than some karate and kickboxing lessons as a teenager. His participation in MMA is purely based on a passion to compete.

This is not to say he is going into this competition under-prepared or unskilled. Four years ago Punk started jiu-jitsu training and he has now spent approximately two years training under one of the best coaches, alongside some of MMA’s very best fighters at the Duke Roufus MMA Academy, led by Mr Roufus himself.

However, the long delay from the moment of signing (December 2014) to making his debut also says a lot more about how far away he was from UFC standards when he signed, although now his trainer is completely confident in Punk’s chances to succeed. Overall though, it is fair to say Punk is at best a low-level novice in the sport of MMA, about to make his debut on the biggest platform available in the entire sport.

Many of the MMA’s most respected voices have spoken of their distaste in regards to the Punk situation, in a manner never previously seen, even when amateur street brawler Kimbo Slice got his UFC opportunity. The likes of UFC commentator Joe Rogan and former heavyweight champion Frank Mir have called his participation in the UFC “ridiculous” and “a novelty” respectively.

The funny thing about such proclamations is that this would make more sense if it was just a novelty fight. But one look at his opponent tells us it is far from a novelty.

Cricketer Andrew Flintoff had a novelty fight four years ago.

British sports fans will recall cricketer Andrew Flintoff having a single professional boxing fight in 2012 after his cricket career ended. He nearly got knocked out in it, barely surviving to scrape a points win from a low-level journeyman. This was a novelty fight, with the aim being only to gently test Flintoff, in a manner not too dangerous for him.

Punk has not been given such a pass on his debut. To compound his issues, he is taking on a good young prospect. Mickey Gall is 2-0, 14 years younger than 37-year-old Punk and desperate to make the most out of an opportunity to give his career a super-boost. A spectacular finish to the fight from Gall will see it go viral around the world and his name become one of the most mentioned in MMA in the world. The motivation for Gall to win is huge.

Punk is seriously up against it and nigh on mad for taking such a chance. Nevertheless, the old saying that “volunteers make the best soldiers” should be remembered in thinking about this bout.

What this means is that Punk’s desire in taking up this challenge must account for something. We may not know if Punk will stand and strike or try to grapple opponents, and we definitely do not know if he is good at either. What we do know though, is that Punk wants to test himself. His desire to do this cannot be questioned. Most in his position would by now be looking to crack Hollywood. Punk is looking to crack some heads.

To what extent Punk feels he can be competitive remains to be seen, partly because no one knows how good he will be, including himself. This means we don’t know how long we will be seeing him compete either.

Brock Lesnar was clear about wanting to only fight the best and after the losses and serious injuries mounted, he retired, save for the random UFC 200 comeback which ended in a failed drug test. Herschel Walker always said he just wanted to experience MMA and never wanted to pursue a run for a title, which he could have done considering the star power his name brings. How many fights Punk has and what he intends to achieve is as of yet unclear, even to himself probably. So it can be safely assumed, a lot will depend on his showing tonight.

From the UFC’s perspective, the signing of Punk was done to rake up pay-per-view figures. The UFC pursued him as a signing as soon as he said was considering taking up MMA. It is a business decision that could lead to the sport itself being degraded should Punk lose emphatically. But in this industry, money talks, and the new owners of the company – WME-IMG having just bought the UFC of the Fertitta brothers for $4billion – will only care about the numbers.

 

“The debut of CM Punk will definitely be remembered, but memorable for what reason remains to be seen. “

 

In essence, Punk’s debut is just about an American celebrity risking his health and his dignity to take up something that was always a dream of his to do. With the whole journey being captured on film too, the situation is wholesomely American.

MMA – or more specifically the UFC – has allowed for many a memorable event, featuring many a great star. The debut of CM Punk will definitely be remembered in this category, but memorable for what reason remains to be seen.

Post event, should the memes begin cascading through social media timelines, the decision to allow Chicago native Phillip Brooks to fight in the UFC may look utterly stupid. However, there is a thin line between bravery and stupidity. For now, whilst we still can, we should admire Punk for treading so heavily between the two, no matter which side of the line he falls into come the end of the night.

CM Punk’s debut can be watched live on BT Sport from 1am (UK time) on Sunday night.